Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
LIVE CATTLE COMPLEX
Rib primals and loin primals are the plus side of the boxed beef market. The pressure on beef prices is coming mostly from chucks, rounds, briskets, plates, and flanks, the primal cuts that are going mostly to ground beef. With beef imports increasing, it’s very likely these cuts will trend lower. For beef to move up, it will have to come from rib and loin primals, but since May 2026 rib roasts have been moving to storage for year-end holidays when 70% of prime rib roasts are sold.
LEAN HOG COMPLEX
With chicken increasing production, chickens are a big negative for hogs.
Broiler chicken production is expected to increase in 2026 by 3.4% with slightly heavier chickens. Production is expected at 49.623 billion pounds according to the august 2026 livestock, dairy, and poultry outlook.
China is downsizing their hog herd but their poultry numbers for broilers are increasing.
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