ADMIS News
SUGAR
March Sugar was higher early Friday but near the lower end of Thursday’s range. The market has stepped back from this week’s contract highs as perhaps the trade got nervous about the large net long position held by the funds, as well as some concern that the market has already priced in bullish news it can take. World Weather Inc. said Hurricane Isaias will miss the primary sugarcane areas along the Louisiana coast. USDA reports this week supported what market watchers have long suspected, that Brazil’s sugar production has been hampered by too much and India’s by a lack thereof. The USDA Foreign Agricultural Service (FAS) attaché in New Delhi put In 2026/27 Indian production at 29.5 million metric tons versus a previous forecast of 33.6 million. The Brazilian attaché put total sugar production for 2026/27 at 42.2 million metric tons, down from 42.5 million previously. The total sugarcane crop was revised up to 695 million tons from 675 million tons previously, but USDA expects a large amount to be left in the fields for next year.
COFFEE
December Coffee was near unchanged early Friday but it was hovering around Thursday’s five-session lows. The market is feeling pressure from the strong exports pace out of Brazil. Government data this week showed the nation exported 3.93 million bags of green coffee in September, the highest in 20 months and up 20.4% from September 2025. El Nino remains a supportive factor, particularly with severe rainfall shortages in Indonesia that are lowering expectations for their robusta output. Also, a drought in Central America this summer has helped drive premiums for arabica coffee from those countries to their highest levels in three years, according to a story from Reuters. Central America accounts for 15% of global arabica supply. World Weather Inc. said that after a dry pattern this week, key growing areas in Brazil will see frequent shower and thunderstorms starting this weekend and lasting into next weekend. The greatest rain is expected Monday through Friday with some areas seeing as much as 2-4 inches of rain. By the end of the next weekend some areas in Parana may have seen more than 5 inches. This should benefit the 2027/28 crop. Colombia and western Venezuela could also see frequent rounds of showers and thunderstorms through the next week, which World Weather Inc. says should support coffee development.
COTTON
December Cotton was higher early Friday as it continued to chop around in a sideways pattern ahead of the monthly USDA supply/demand (WASDE) report due out later in the session. Thursday’s export sales report was a bit disappointing, with net sales for old and new crop combined at 221,128 bales for the week ending October 1 versus 241,727 the previous week. However, the market put that news aside in anticipation of WASDE report. Cumulative export sales for 2026/27 have reached 44% of the USDA forecast for the marketing year versus a five-year average of 53% for this point in the season. The slower than normal pace suggests USDA may eventually lower its export forecast, but it may be a bit early in the season for them to take that step. The dollar was near unchanged early Friday after reaching its highest level since April 2025 earlier this week. The strong currency make US cotton less competitive on the global market. Hurricane Isaias is expected to make landfall late Friday. World Weather Inc. said the storm should miss many of the more important cotton production areas of Georgia, but there will be concerns over fiber quality, as an additional 1-3 inches of rain are expected after last week’s heavy rains. Flooding may occur in southern Alabama and southeastern Mississippi. The storm may also interrupt harvest activity.
COCOA
December Cocoa was lower early Friday but inside Thursday’s range. Expectations for a larger global surplus for 2025/26 are countering ideas that El Nino will lower 2026/27 global production, notably dry conditions in west Africa and too much rain in Ecuador. The larger the surplus for 2025/26, the less threat from El Nino. The third-quarter grind data for Europe, Asia, and North America due out next Thursday will influence expectations for that 2025/26 surplus. Decent rainfall in Ivory Coast and Ghana this week has eased concern about the status of the late main crop. World Weather Inc. said regular rounds of showers and thunderstorms should continue through the next week, though most days will not be as wet as the they have this week. They added that more rain is still desired before the rainy season ends in November.
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