Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
A lot of green on the screen this AM as prices across the Ag space are mostly higher, shrugging off lower trade in the energy markets. Speculative traders are likely taking a break from the recent heavy selling as global weather has turned a bit more threatening. Here in the US the past 24 hours has seen scattered rains, some heavy, fall across the WCB and S. plains along with portions of the N. Midwest. Precipitation thru the end of June will favor the S. Midwest, N. Plains and the Great Lakes region. Dryer in the SE and TX where triple digit heat is expected into early July. Much above normal temperatures is expected to impact much of the nation’s midsection by early next week. Heat and dryness in France is shifting east into central Europe causing crop stress. Rains in South American over the next week will be limited to NE Argentina and S. Brazil. Energy prices are lower with spot WTI crude oil down $2.15 a barrel near $71.05, falling to a 3 ½ month low. Spot RBOB is down $.06 per gallon while HO is off $.03. Daily vessel traffic thru the Straits of Hormuz has hovered between 35-50 per day, while well above the small handful during the height of the conflict, it remains well below the 100-135 under peaceful conditions. The US $$ is moderately higher stretching out to fresh 13-month high. US stock indices are steady to slightly higher.
Corn:
July-26 and Dec-26 are both $.02 ¼ higher at $4.12 and $4.39 ½ respectively. Both have held withing yesterday’s range. The MM short position in corn has likely swelled to 66k contracts, the largest in nearly 5 months. Today’s EIA report is expected to show ethanol production holding near LW’s 324 mil. gallons, slightly below the pace needed to reach the USDA corn usage estimate.
Soybeans:
July-26 and Nov-26 beans are $.03 ½ higher at $11.20 ½ and $11.44 ¼ respectively, both holding within yesterday’s range. July-26 meal is up $3.40 at $306.3 while July-26 oil is down 50 points at 70.08. Crush margins are little changed, holding near $3.25 bu. Prices will continue to be sensitive to Chinese demand, or the lack thereof. US FOB offers at the Gulf are back to a slightly premium over Brazilian offers for July/Aug-26, while slightly below Sept-26 forward. President Trump this AM took to Truth Social to state “food is desperately needed in Iran” and that “we will be releasing some of their money, to our Farmers and rancher to buy corn, wheat, soybean, and more”.
Wheat:
Prices have recovered from yesterday’s sell-off, currently trading $.02-$.04 higher across the 3 classes. CGO July-26 is up $.02 ¾ at $5.89 ½, KC July-26 is $.04 higher at $6.22 ¼, while MIAX July-26 is $.02 ½ higher $5.90 ½. July-26 KC held support above its June low of $6.14, setting up the price recovery. Inside trade for MIAX July-26 after yesterday’s price collapse. SovEcon lowered their 2026/27 Russian production forecast 1.4 mmt to 88.9 mmt citing lower spring wheat acres. Total acres at 25.8 mil. HA are the lowest in 12 years. The SovEcon production forecast is still above the USDA est. of 88 mmt.
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