Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SK is up 15 cents and near 16.18. SMK is near 459.9. BOK is near 72.86. CK is up 7 cents and near 7.57. CZ is near 7.04. WK is up 33 cents and near 10.43. KWK is up 31 cents and near 10.69. MWK is up 17 cents and near 11.02.
US stocks are mixed. Crude is higher and near $105. Silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher.
Wheat futures are higher. Combination additional Ukraine war premium and lower than expected USDA 2022 winter wheat crop rating supported prices. KWK gapped open higher. Resistance is near the 20 DMA near 10.79. USDA rated the US 2022 winter wheat crop at 30 pct G/E vs 40 expected and versus 53 ly. This lowest since 1996. 1996 wheat yield was 37.1 vs 49.7 last year. Our weather guy estimates April south plains temps above normal, dry west normal rains east. May is warm and dry. US wheat exports are down 18 pct vs ly. Trade estimates US 2021/22 wheat carryout at 656 mil bu vs 653 est in March.
Corn futures continue higher led by Dec. Fact USDA announced 1.1 mmt US corn to China offered support. Ukraine corn exports to date are 19.5 mmt with many doubting they will export USDA 27.5 mmt goal. There is talk that China may have bought another 2-3 mmt of US corn. Argentina transport union will strike Monday for higher rates to offset higher fuel cost. Argentina is still rationing diesel fuel. Our weather guy estimates April US Midwest temps below normal and normal rains. May is warm and dry west, normal east. US summers forecast warm and dry west and normal east. US corn exports are down 15 pct vs ly. Brazil corn harvest 15 pct. US corn plantings 2 percent vs 2 last year. Trade estimates US 2021/22 corn carryout at 1,415 mil bu vs 1,440 est in March. Some feel the final carryout could be closer to 1,120.
Soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures are higher. China is on holiday but some feel they will return and buy US soybeans. Shanghai is still on covid lockdown. Brazil August soybean fob basis is +215/240 vs US +140/150. There are no Brazil fob offers Sep-Jan, 2023. Argentina transport union will strike Monday for higher rates to offset higher fuel cost. Argentina is still rationing diesel fuel. Our weather guy estimates April US Midwest temps below normal and normal rains. May is warm and dry west, normal east. US summers forecast warm and dry west and normal east. US soybean exports are down 19 pct vs ly. Brazil soybean harvest 80 pct. Brazil soybean crop is est near 123 vs USDA 127. Argentina 39 mmt vs USDA 43.5. Trade est US 2021/22 soybean carryout at 262 mil bu vs 285 est in March. USDA will not issue a US 2022/23 soybean S/D until May. Matif rapeseed is higher on EU crop freeze worries. World rapeseed oil and sunoil prices are near 1.00 per pound vs US soyoil near 73 cents.
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