Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are slightly higher. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. US rains in KS, OH,KY and TN. Most of Midwest dry which should aid harvest. SA weather is favorable for crops. Powell suggested more wiggle room in lower rates with jobs data more important than inflation concern.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.08. Dalian soybean was higher. Soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. USDA est US soybean harvest at 9 pct. Crop was rated 61 pct G/E, down 2 from last week. One crop watcher lowered his est of US soybean yield .5 bpa to 52. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. Argentina sold 10 soybean cargoes to China. Argentina farmer increased selling soybeans. Trade will be watching SX-SF spread for impact Argentina zero export tax will have on US export demand.
CORN
CZ is near 4.25. Dalian corn futures are higher. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. USDA announced 122 mmt US 25/25 and 26/27 corn to Mexico. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. One crop watcher lowered his est of US corn yield 2 bpa to 182. WZ-CZ spread dropped below 100.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.20. KWZ is near 5.11. MWZ is near 5.68. Wheat futures up on higher Russia prices. Still, some feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Major wheat exports could see a 22-24 mmt increase in crops vs last year. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. 20 pct of US 2026 winter wheat crop is planted vs 23 ly and average. Matif futures followed higher US prices. EU soft wheat exports are near 7.0 mmt vs 6.1 last year.
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