Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Green day. Grains are mixed to higher. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is near 3,000. UBS est gold will test 3,200. USDA March 31 stocks and acreage report and April 2 when new tariff reciprocal will be announced will be key to price volatility. China announced plan to boost domestic oil use by rising wages, increase pension and incentives for childbirth. This is offset by talk of higher OPEC production and concern over decline in World economy. Trump could talk with Putin on Tuesday. US is bombing Yemen Houthi positions.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.16. Increase Brazil farmer selling offset increase China demand. Brazil 2 week forecast is drier than normal. Brazil harvest is near 72 pct done. Safras est Brazil soybean crop at 172.4 mmt vs 174.8 previous. Some fear US final soybean exports could drop to 1,650 mil bu vs USDA 1,825. SK support is 10.00. 10.34 is resistance. Trade War, tariffs and global weather adds to trade uncertainty.
CORN
CK is near 4.62. 4.55 is key support. 4.65 is resistance. E Brazil remains dry. Second crop will need a rain for pollination. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB. Delta and SE. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. China was a buyer of Brazil and Ukraine corn. New tariffs are negative to US corn demand to EU. Trade looking for lower 2025 corn prices if US farmers plant 94.0 mil corn acres and summer weather is normal.
WHEAT
WK is near 5.68. KWK is near 6.01. MWK is near 6.11. Wheat is supported by dry weather across US south plains and Black Sea. Near record blowing plains winds may have damaged some HRW wheat. Wheat futures continue to struggle near season lows on concern about export demand and drop in World economies. WK is testing 20, 50 and 100 DMA near 5.70.
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