Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 37th day of partial shutdown. Senate Democratic leaders may be digging in after victories in VA, NJ and NYC. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are mixed. USD is marginally lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 11.24. SF seeing choppy trade between 11.20-11.40. SX deliveries were 377. ADM stopped 341. On Nov 14 some feel lower US crop could be matched by lower exports unless USDA is forced to show increase China demand. SMF tested 320 support. SMF supported by talk of Argentina oilseed workers strike and lower crush margins. BOF is near 50 cents. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Dalian soybean soymeal higher, Dalian vegoil also higher. No US export sales data. Trade estimates soybean sales near 400-2,000 mt.
CORN
CH is near 4.48. Corn futures following soybeans and record weekly ethanol production. No export sales but trade estimates sales near 800-2,000 mt. Asian buyers are buying Brazil corn. Argentina farmers not selling given uncertain economic landscape. Most look for US corn yield near 183 vs StoneX 186 and S/P Global 185.5. Brazil and Argentina weather remains favorable for crops. Increase logistic challenges is slowing Ukraine grain movement to ports. Dalian corn futures were higher and above key resistance. Weekly US ethanol production was up 2.9 pvt vs last week and 1.6 ly. Stocks were up 1.3 pct vs last week and up 2.9 pct ly. Margins are positive but declining. Matif corn futures are higher on talk of aflatoxin in east EU especially Poland.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.63. KWH is near 5.47. KWZ-KWH spread widened to-14. MWH is near 5.74. Wheat rallied on rumors of China interest in US white and HRS wheat. Australia and Canada are cheaper. Recent rally in wheat futures has made US wheat exports less competitive. No US sales but trade estimates sales near 250-650 mt. Matif futures higher on fund short covering.
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