Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is down 6 cents and near 11.73. SMK is near 329.9. BOK is near 48.11. CK is unch and near 4.34. WK is up 2 cents and near 5.58. KWK is unch and near 5.77. MWK is up 1 cent and near 6.47. US stocks are higher .US Dollar is higher. Crude is marginally lower. China is on holiday. Markets on hold on talk of Iran retaliation against Israel and Venezuela attempt to annex oil rich Guyana.
SK is near 11.73. Trade worried about increase South America supplies especially soymeal. SK is now below the 20 and 50 DMA. US soybean export commit is down 19 pct vs ly and USDA estimate of a 12 pct drop. This weighed on futures. US soymeal season to date shipments were record high. China futures were closed for Ching Ming festival. Malaysia palmoil futures were lower. S&P Global left their est of Brazil and Argentina soybean crops unchanged from their previous estimate. FAO reported World March food prices were up from Feb but remain below ly. Vegoil prices were up 8 pct, Dairy up 3 pct, meat up 2 pct and sugar up 5 pct.
CK is near 4.34. CK is back testing the 20 and 50 DMA. US export commit is up 18 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 26 pct increase. Sales were near 37 mil bu with 17 needed to reach USDA goal. Black Sea and Med corn values were lower due to recent China cancellations of Ukraine corn sales. S&P Global increased Ukraine corn crop, left Brazil and Argentina unchanged and lowered Mexico. World energy markets are volatile due to talk Iran may retaliate against Israel. Long range US Midwest weather forecast is warmer and drier. FAO reported World March food prices were up from Feb but remain below ly. Cereal prices were down 2 pct and are down 20 pct vs ly.
WK is near 5.57. KWK is near 5.76. MWK is near 6.46. WK remains above the 20 DMA but below the 50. US export commit is up 3 pct vs ly versus USDA estimating a 4 pct drop. S&P Global increased Russia, Ukraine and India wheat crops but lowered EU. Wheat price volatility tends to increase from mid April to mid July due to supply uncertainty. Poland announced they will bailout farmers with 467 million Euro one time payment. US south plains forecast is warmer and drier. US SE could see new flooding. N EU is wet. S EU and Black Sea is dry.
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