Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unch and near 14.77. SMK is near 457.0. BOK is near 55.50. CK is up 2 cents and near 6.53. WK is up 1 cent and near 7.05. KWK is up 5 cents and near 8.75. MWK is unch and near 8.77. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are higher. Reduced fear of additional Bank crisis and talk Fed may slow rate increase supports equities and weighs on US Dollar.
Yesterday, wheat futures rallied on word multinational companies will exit the Russia export trade. Some feel there may be limited short term impact on Russia wheat export. Still there are even more important talk Russia could slow exports due to low prices or set a minimum prices higher than recent trade. Some fear this could only hurt Russia farmers and reduce government revenues. Still this and dry US HRW weather, wet and cold US HRS and Canada weather could support wheat prices Export sales today. USDA stocks and acres report tomorrow.
C,E and S Brazil weather is dry. Argentina rains could ease in 8-15 day. South America total 2023 soybean crop could be up 7 mmt from ly. Total crush could be down 7 mmt. Exports could be up 16 mmt. Brazil exports could be record 97 mmt and crush record 55 mmt. Argentina crush could be only 27 vs USDA 35 and 39 ly. There was talk that China will switch 750 mt from Argentina to US. This is for reserve not crush. Could be helping SN-SX spread. Trade est US March 1 soybean stocks at 1,742 vs 1,932 ly. Stocks below 2,000 tends to also support SN-SX. Weekly export sales est near 100-600 mt vs 152 last week.
C Brazil is dry. This could impact safrina crop. Argentina grain inspectors announced a strike, This could impact storage vs ports. This dropped Argentina corn basis. There is talk that Argentina could offer a peso corn program to farmers. Cold and wet weather continues in US north plains. Still wet across most of US Midwest. Long range maps hint of some easing of Midwest rains especially east. USDA report is key. 11 of 19 years, USDA corn stocks were above ave trade guess. Weekly US export sales est at 600-1,800 mt.
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