Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SN is down. CN is unch and near 4.73. WN is down. KWN is down. MWN is down. Stocks are mixed. US Dollar is higher and waiting for this week’s US Producer Price Index and Consumer price index. Meat futures were lower.
SN is near 12.14. Some still feel any US Midwest summer weather problem could rally SN future to 13.00 gap. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil futures were higher. Conab will update Brazil soybean crop today. They are near 146.5 mmt vs USDA 154. Heavy rains continue in S Brazil. US soybean plantings is near 35 pct vs 45 ly. One group reduced US 2024 soybean acres by 810,000. US soybean exports were down 18 pct vs ly and USDA 15 pct drop. China Ag Minister est 2023/24 and 2024/25 total soybean imports at 190.7 mmt vs USDA est if 214.0. Reduced China buying US soybeans could increase USDA est of 2024.25 carryout at 445. There is talk US could impose tariffs on imported China used cooking oil. Matif rapeseed is making 10 month highs on EU crop worries. US soybean export price is near $469, Brazil $57 and Argentina $449, US soymeal export price is near $441 and Argentina $412.
CN is near 4.73. US corn exports are up 30 pct vs ly and USDA est of a 29 pct increase. US corn plantings are 49 pct vs 60 ly. One group increased US 2024 corn acres by 810,000. Dalian corn futures were higher. China Ag Minister est 2023/24 corn imports at 19.5 mmt vs USDA 23 and 2024/25 imports at 13 mmt vs USDA 23. Conab will est corn crop today. Conab is near 113 mmt bs USDA 122. Argentina corn crop is est near 47 mmt vs USDA 53. 15 mmt drop in South America supply could increase demand for US exports. Some feel funds could increase buying and add to supply risk to 5.40 CN. US corn export price is near $205, Brazil $204 and Ukraine $188
WN is near 6.81. KWN is near 6.95. Wheat futures jumped to new highs for the move on increase crop worries of Russia and EU winter wheat crops. One group est Russia crop at 85 mmt vs USDA 88. That is friendly futures. Some feel there may have been limited freeze damage to Russia crop but key is rainfall over next 30 days. Some showers are forecasted for parts of S Russia but much more is needed. It continues to rain in west EU. USDA left US WW crop rating 50 pct G/E vs 29 ly. KS and TX dropped while OK and CO rating increased. India May 1 wheat stocks were down 10 pct vs ly and near 18 year low. US SRW export prices are near $267, French $275 and Black Sea $232.
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