Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 28th day of partial shutdown. Some feel shutdown could end November 1 when health care cost increase and SNAP ends. US Fed meeting tomorrow. Grains are higher. Talk of a China deal including soybeans supported prices. US farmer increased soybean sales. US stocks are slightly higher on talk of lower rates. USD is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is lower. EU and Black Sea wet. Argentina wet. Rains forecast for Brazil. Rains are in MN, KS and US SE.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.96. SF has now rallied 84 cents since October low. SF-SH spread up near -11. US Dec-Jan fob soybean basis up to near +100. SMZ is above 300. Soymeal demand remains strong. SBM gulf up to +30Z. BOZ is still above the 200 DMA but below 50 DMA. One crop scout est Brazil crop near 177 mmt with 36 pct of crop planted. Abiove est Brazil crop at 178.5 mmt. Brazil soybean basis fell sharply after sharply higher futures. Same scout est US soybean yield at 52.0 and crop 4,170 mil bu vs USDA 53.5 and crop of 4,261. US exports are est at 6.7 mmt or down 37 pct vs ly. Key to prices are if China buys US soybeans.
CORN
CZ is near 4.31. CZ is up 40 cents since August low. Tech buying in control. Some est Argentina corn crop could be a record 60 mmt vs USDA est of 53 and with 34 pct pf crop planted. Increase logistic challenges is slow Ukraine grain movement to ports. One crop scout est Brazil corn crop at 140 mmt with 55 pct of crop planted. Same scout est US corn yield at 181 with crop at 16,290 mil bu vs USDA 185.5 and crop near 16,707. US exports are est at 10.53 mmt or up 58 pct vs ly and USDA up 5.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.30. WZ resistance is 5.40. KWZ is near 5.18. MWZ is near 5.61. Wheat futures following higher corn and soybeans. Argentina and Australia will soon harvest record crops. Record Argentina yield could question protein level. This could help US HRW export demand. US wheat exports are near 11.4 mmt or up 20 pct vs ly and USDA up 9.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
