Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Trade is struggling with what to watch. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are slightly higher after Thursdays sharp selloff. Crude is lower. Gold, silver and copper are lower on US policy uncertainty. Meats are lower.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.62. Futures rallied Thursday on talk of US and China trade deal. SH-SK spread is at -18 cent carry. SMH-SMK is ar -8.60 carry. Brazil farmer increased cash sales. Argentina still est crop at 49 mmt with crop rated 34 pct poor vs 36 last week and 18 ly. US Midwest temps should warm. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were higher. Dalian soymeal futures are near 4 month high. Some could see US soybean carryout 50 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports and crush. March soybean board crush remains near 130 with range 119-137. Oil share also remains at 44. Weekly US soybean export sales est at 100-500 mt vs 185 last week. China bought a few cargoes of Argentina soybeans.
CORN
CK is near 5.12. CK is finding resistance near 5.20. CH-CK spread is -15. Dalian corn futures were lower. Brazil futures gapped higher on harvest delays. Argentina rated crop 30 pct poor vs 33 last week and 15 ly. Some could see US corn carryout 35-40 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports offsetting lower feed and residual. Weekly US ethanol was unch from last week while stocks were higher than last year. Weekly US corn export sales est at 900-1,600 mt vs 1,648 last week
WHEAT
WK is near 6.03. KWK is near 6.22. MWK is near 6.48. US plains will warm. Concern is that cold temps return week 1 of March. Russia temps are cold this week. India is warm and dry. Matif wheat was lower. West EU rains could drop French wheat quality. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-600 mt vs 569 last week. US spring wheat sales could increase but winter wheat could drop. World wheat values range bound between 230-280. At 230, farmer selling slows. At 280, consumer buying also slows. World supplies are adequate enough to keep wheat prices below cost of production.
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