Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Fed day. Grains are lower. Stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is a little higher but near $58. Silver is at new highs. Central Bank is expected to lower rates. Trade will be watching the Supreme Court decision on Trump tariffs. According to PNC’s Christmas Price Index, the cost of the gifts of the 12 days of Christmas have reached an all-time high of $51,476.12 this year. A partridge in a pear tree is $420.18.
SOYBEANS
SF is near 10.83. SF is back below 11.00. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were higher. Matif rapeseed futures were lower on increase Canada and Australia crops. China will auction soybean from reserve to make room for US and Argentina imports. USDA left US 25/26 soybean carryout at 290 mil bu. Some est carryout closer to 350 due to lower exports. US Oct soybean crush is est at a record 234.2 mil bu vs 215.8 ly. Soyoil stocks 1,717 mil lbs vs 1,592 ly. Brazil rains. Arg dry.
CORN
CH is near 4.457. Dalian corn futured at 2 week low. Brazil weather is favorable. USDA dropped US 25/26 corn carryout at 2,029 due to higher exports, Some feel USDA may be too aggressive in raising exports do to slow start in Ukraine exports. USDA dropped World 25/26 crop 4 mm5, raised exports 2 mmt and lowered end stocks 2 mmt. CH supported by US export program. Resistance is from potential higher SA crops and talk of higher global feed grain and feed wheat supplies.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.31. KWH is near 5.25. MWH is near 5.75. USDA left US 25/26 wheat carryout at 901 mil bu. USDA estimated World 25/26 wheat carryout at 274.7 mmt vs 271.4 in Nov and 260.0 ly. USDA raised World production to 837.8 mmt from 828.9 in Nov and 800.7 ly. Argentina up 2 mmt to 24.0, Australia up 1 mmt to 37.0, Canada up 3 mmt to 40.0, Russia up 1 mmt to 87.5 and EU up 1.7 to 144.0 Trade was increased only 1 mmt to 218 .7 but vs 209.1 ly.
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