Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SK is unchanged and near 13.65. SMK is near 428.3. BOK is near 44.41. CK is up 3 cents and near 5.51. WK is up 5 cents and near 6.51. KWK is up 6 cents and near 6.36. USDA report this week. US stocks are higher. US Dollar higher. Crude is higher. Gold is higher.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 53 yuan in soybeans, down 7 in Corn, down 12 in Soymeal, up 74 in Soyoil, and up 68 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 63 ringgit at 3,438 (basis April) on ideas of weaker supplies.
Brazil weather looks nearly ideal except for some delay in harvest progress in part of northern and eastern Mato Grosso, Goias and Minas Gerais. For Argentina concern is greatest over dryness in the southwest for this week and a close watch over potential rainfall in central areas for next week is warranted
Trade looks for US corn carryout near 1,392 mil bu vs USDA 11,552. Some analyst are close to 1,000 due to higher exports and domestic use. Trade looks for World corn carryout near 279.8 mmt vs USDA 283.8. Dec US census corn exports were 18 mil bu higher than expected.
Trade looks for US soybean carryout near 123 mil bu vs USDA 140. Some analyst are close to 100 due to higher exports. Trade looks for World soybean carryout near 83.3 mmt vs USDA 84.3. Dec US census soybean exports were record and 30 mil bu higher than expected.
Trade looks for US wheat carryout near 834 mil bu vs USDA 836. Trade looks for World wheat carryout near 312.8 mmt vs USDA 313.1. Some now estimate US 2021 wheat crop near 1,900 and 2021/22 carryout near 775. Some look for wheat to slowly trade higher after harvest low and into the fall.
On Friday, Managed funds were net buyers of 3,000 SRW Wheat; sold 2,000 Corn; sold 4,000 Soybeans; sold 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and 2,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 14,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 354,000 Corn; net long 169,000 Soybeans; net long 70,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 111,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
