Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
USDA report day. Grains are mixed. SK is down 1 cent and near 14.13. SX is down 1 cent and near 12.72. SMK is near 408.0. BOK is near 52.92. CK is up 1 cent and near 5.80. CZ is up 3 cents and near 4.98. WK is up 3 cents and near 6.32. KWK is up 5 cents and near 5.82. MWK is up 2 cents and near 6.43. US stocks are marginally higher. US Dollar is higher. Gold is lower.
For the week, SRW Wheat prices are up roughly 24 cents; HRW up 25; HRS up 41; Corn is up 18 cents; Soybeans up 12 cents; Soymeal unchanged, and; Soyoil up 55 points. Crushing margins are down 6 cents at $0.58 (July); Oil share unchanged at 38%.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled down 48 yuan in soybeans, up 6 in Corn, up 17 in Soymeal, down 106 in Soyoil, and down 134 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 73 ringgit at 3,864 (basis June) at midsession supported by prospects of good demand, tight supplies.
US Midwest 6-10 day forecast calls for below normal temps, below normal rains in plains and Midwest and above in south. In Brazil, last evening’s GFS model run was wetter in a large portion of the region April 16 – 20. Argentina’s conditions will still be good for late maturing summer crops.
Talk of lower Argentina soybean crop supports soybeans. USDA est of US 2020/21 carryout key today.
China soyoil futures lower. Palmoil higher. Demand for US soyoil US for fuel is supportive.
Talk of lower Brazil corn crop and China interest is US and Ukraine corn supportive. USDA key today.
US plains, Canada and EU weather supports wheat. Russia export policy and weather key to wheat.
On Thursday, Managed funds were net buyers of 10,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net bought 35,000 contracts of Corn; net bought 4,000 Soybeans; net sold 1,000 lots of Soymeal, and; net bought 1,000 Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 7,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; net long 466,000 Corn; net long 175,000 Soybeans; long 66,000t Soymeal, and; net long 95,000 Soyoil.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
