Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is unch and near $66. Gold is lower. Ukraine agreed to a ceasefire. It is now up to Russia.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.04.. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were lower. Palmoil was higher, USDA est of Brazil soybean crop at 169.O mmt unch from Feb and Argentina 49.0 mmt also unch from Feb. USDA left est US 2024/25 soybean carryout at 380. One group lowered US exports and crush. There est of US 2024/25 carryout is 440 mil bu, US soybean exports are near 1,412 mil bu vs 1,289 ly. There was talk China may have cancelled 1-2 soybean cargoes over the weekend. China imposed tariffs on Canada canola oil. USDA said that they did not incorporate trade tariffs in numbers.
CORN
CK is near 4.62. Dalian corn futures were higher. E Brazil should see normal rains. Brazil corn supply tight before safrina harvest in July. US NW Midwest is dry. Rains in ECB and SE. Mexico could leave corn off retaliatory list. US PNW corn prices remain cheapest to Asia buyers and now gulf to North Africa. USDA est Brazil corn crop at 126.0 mmt vs USDA 126.0 and Argentina at 50.0. USDA est US 2024/25 carryout at 1,540. US corn exports are near1,144 mil bu vs 860 ly. One group raised US exports and ethanol. Their est of US 2024/25 carryout is 1,505 mil bu,
WHEAT
WK is near 5.52. KWK is near 5.68. MWK is near 5.92. US plains will remain dry with moderating temps. Black Sea is also dry. USDA raised US 2024/25 wheat carryout 819 mil bu vs USDA 794. Trade looks for USDA to eventually reduce EU and Russia exports but this could be offset by lower imports and World end stocks. Argentina and Australia prices are now competitive to North Africa. US wheat exports are near 582 mil bu vs 494 ly. USDA rated KS wheat crop 52 pct G/E vs 54 last week, TX 18 pct G/E vs 34 last week and OK 46 pct G/E vs 35 last week. Heavy winds are forecast for much of US plains.
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