Explore Special Offers & White Papers from AFS

USD Likely to Firm Ahead of FOMC


The U.S. dollar index is lower but will probably firm in advance of the FOMC meeting.

Germany’s consumer price inflation was 2.2% in April 2024, holding steady at its lowest level since May 2021 and was slightly under market forecasts of 2.3%. Also, the EU-harmonized rate moved higher to 2.4%, which is up from March’s near three-year low of 2.3%, and slightly above the market consensus of 2.3%. Core inflation, excluding food and energy, fell to 3.0% in April, which was the lowest level since March 2022.

The economic sentiment indicator in the euro area declined 0.6 points to 95.6 in April 2024, missing market predictions of 96.9.

The Japanese yen declined to its lowest level against the U.S. dollar in 34 years.  However, there was a quick recovery in holiday-thinned market conditions in Japan, and there is speculation that the Japanese government intervened to support its currency for the first time since 2022.


Stock index futures are higher.

The 9:30 central time April Dallas Federal Reserve manufacturing survey is expected to be -11.3.

The main event this week will be the Wednesday statement from the Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Federal Reserve Chair Powell’s press conference.

The U.S. central bank is anticipated to maintain interest rates at 5.25%-5.50%.

Many analysts believe Fed Chair Powell’s comments at his press conference following the release of the FOMC statement will be hawkish on balance.


Futures are steady to higher.

There are no speakers from the Federal Reserve today.

Financial futures markets are predicting no change in the fed funds rate at the Federal Open Market Committee’s May 1, June 12, and July 31 meetings. However, there is a 62% probability of a rate cut at the September 18 meeting.

I would not be surprised to see the probability of a fed funds rate cut at the September meeting diminishing as we get closer to that meeting.

The fundamentals remain bearish, and lower prices are likely. However, the downtrend is subject to the possibility of a flight to quality flow of funds if geopolitical concerns intensify.


Interested in more futures markets?  Explore our Market Dashboards here.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

Latest News & Market Commentary

Explore Special Offers & White Papers from Archer Financial Services

Get Started

Contact Us Today