Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grain futures are mixed. SN is up 6 cents and near 17.13. SX is near 15.36. SMN is near 417.6. BON is near 79.44. CN is down 7 cents and near 7.62. CZ is near 7.14. WN is down 15 cents and near 10.55. KWN is down 13 cents and near 11.48. MWN is down 11 cents and near 12.10.
US stocks are higher for now. US Dollar is lower but at 20 year highs. Crude is higher. US inflation is at 40 year high. US Fed will increase rates this week. Economists calling for 75 basis hike vs 50. Gold, silver, copper, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower.
US Midwest will be hot and dry this week. 2nd week is now also warm and dry. Still a few weather watchers are looking for more of a normal US summer. Spain, France and Germany are dry. Black Sea, Argentina and Brazil are dry. India monsoon is off to a subpar start. Canada is wet and warm.
Soybean futures are slightly higher following higher US stocks and lower US Dollar. US soybean exports are 1,856 mil bu or down 11 pct vs last year. Brazil premiums are down due to lack of new China buying. Brazil and Argentina soybean crops est near 165 mmt vs USDA 169. Last week, China bought 20 World soybean cargoes vs 30-35 normal. New China Covid lockdowns may be slowing demand. USDA rated soybean crop 70 pct G/E with 88 pct crop planted. Best crops are in AR,KY,IA and WI. Lowest rated OH, ND, MN and MO. Matif rapeseed prices near 3 month low. Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower, vegoils higher.
Corn futures are lower. Key is US summer weather. US corn exports are 1,772 mil bu or down 17 pct vs last year. Brazil and Argentina corn crops est near 159 mmt vs USDA 169. USDA rated corn crop 72 pct G/E with 97 pct crop planted. There is about 350,000 acres yet to be planted in ND. Best crops are in IL,MI, KY,IA and WI. Lowest rated KS, ND, MN and NE.
Wheat futures are lower. US wheat exports are 616 thousand bu vs 694 last year. USDA rated US winter wheat crop 31 pct G/E vs 30 last week and 48 ly. 42 pct of crop is rated poor/VP vs 20 last year. 10 pct of the crop is harvested. US spring wheat crop was rated 54 pct G/E vs 37 last year and 70 average with 94 pct of crop planted. There is 700,000 unplanted spring wheat acres in ND and MN. World buyers are asking for India wheat but India is not selling. Buyers also asking for Russia especially after USDA raised Russia wheat exports to 40 mmt but freight is difficult to find. South EU weather is warm and dry. Matif wheat futures are higher due to dry EU weather and 4 week low in Euro.
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