Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are higher. US Bank earnings day. CPI today. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. There are rumors that Israel and Hamas may be close to ceasefire deal.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.50. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil were steady. Palmoil was lower. Argentina weather is dry and warmer but confidence in rain in week 2 are declining. SH-SK spread is near -14. US river levels are dropping. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Most look for Brazil crop 170+ mmt vs USDA 169. Key now is SA weather. US and SA farmers increased cash sales the last 3 days but were overshadowed by fund buying. Dec NOPA soybean crush is est at a record 205.5 mil bu vs 195.3 ly. Soyoil stocks are est at 1,253 mil lbs vs 1,360 ly. US soybean crush capacity has increased to satisfy projected increase in soyoil use for fuel.
CORN
CH is near 4.76. CH has rallied from August on increase demand and is back near March-June, 2024 4.80 support. Dalian corn futures were steady. Argentina 11-14 day forecast has showers but confidence is declining. CH-CK spread is near -10. US river levels are dropping. Next weeks US Midwest temps will be colder. Most look for Brazil crop 125 mmt vs USDA 127. US and SA farmers increased cash sales in last 3 days but were overshadowed by fund buying. US is price competitive to buyers in nearby. Some feel CH could be in a 4.60-4.80 trading range until more is known about SA weather/crop size.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.44. KWH is near 5.57. MWH is near 5.89. USDA est World wheat crop at 793 mmt vs 791 ly. USDA est exports at 212 mmr vs 221 last year.World end stocks were 258 mmt vs 267 ly. N Africa imports could slow due to higher USD. KWH-KWK spread near -10.. WH-WK spread near -12. Wheat futures are near season lows with little bullish news but market may have trade most of bearish news. Funds are short 149,000 wheat contracts.
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