Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are lower. USD is lower. Crude is unch near $62 supported by increase Ukraine attacks on Russia infrastructure and new EU sanctions on third countries refiners that buy Russia oil. Gold is higher awaiting Fridays personal consumption index and continued Central Bank buying. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. US rains in SE MO, S IL, AR, E TN and moving into IN and OH. SA weather is favorable for crops. COF report as bullish cattle futures.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.19. Lower close could send SX to 9.50. Some est US soybean harvest near 10-12 pct. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. SA weather is favorable for crops. One group lowered US 25/26 soybean exports to 1,400 vs USDA 1,685 due to lack of China buying. This more than offset a drop in crop due to dry August.
CORN
CZ is near 4.23. CZ had an outside day and closed lower. Record US crop could weigh on prices through harvest. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. USDA announced 206.4 mmt US corn to unknown thought to be to EU. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. Black Sea exporters looking to drop corn prices to compete with lower US and SA prices. One group wants farmers to sell 4.50 CH26.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.19. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.06. MWZ is near 5.67. Some feel USDA may not be done in increasing Canada, Australia, Argentina and EU crops. Major wheat exports could see a 22-24 mmt increase in crops vs last year. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. WZ is near season low and below 20 DMA. Hard to be bearish at these prices but little is bullish wheat. Lower USD could help wheat futures.
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