Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US Central Bank dropped rates 25 basis points. US stocks are sharply higher. USD is higher. Crude is unch near $63. Gold is lower. Congress set to fight for new spending bill. Current funding expires Oct 1. House will vote Friday. President Trump and XI will talk Friday.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.39. Again, 10.50 proved to be key resistance. In a case of kick the can, EPA announced a new comment period on plan to reallocate RFS obligations which weighed on soyoil futures. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil were lower. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 330 mil bu and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 400-1,500 mt vs 541 last week. China bought a few Brazil/Argentina OND soybean cargoes.
CORN
CZ is near 4.26. CZ saw double top at 4.31 with support 4.23. Some look at lower USD, good US exports and dry August have rallied. US export prices remain competitive vs SA nearby prices. Brazil futures are lower on higher Real. Dalia corn futures were higher. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est and est for old crop. Stocks should be near 1,375 mil bu vs USDA 1,325 and crop could be down 25-50 mil bu. This leaves final exports key to price action. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 500-1,900 mt vs 539 last week. Weekly ethanol production was down 4.5 pct vs last week, stocks were down 5.0 pct vs ly and margins remain positive.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.30. WZ range 4.90-5.40. KWZ is near 5.17. MWZ is near 5.73. Wheat futures may be finding resistance due to higher USD. Australia dollar is at 2025 highs and weighing on wheat prices. Lower Argentina peso is offering resistance to Argentina wheat prices. Matif wheat futures held support and Russia prices are slightly higher with talk of higher production offering resistance. Wire services are asking for Sep 1 stocks est. Stocks should be near 2,135 mil bu vs USDA 1,992 last year. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 300-650 mt vs 305 last week.
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