Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are higher. SX is up 8 cents and near 14.20. SMZ is near 418.9. BOZ is near 62.76. CZ is up 2 cents and near 6.68. WZ is up 9 cents and near 8.67. KWZ is up 10 cents and near 9.39. MWZ is up 8 cents and near 9.39.
Soybeans, soymeal and soyoil are higher following lower Dollar and higher commodities. US soybean export outlook suggest lower exports do to drop in China demand. China hog margins though did improve to 16 month high. USDA left US crop rated 55 G/E but harvest is 8 pct vs 14 ly. Increase Argentina farmer selling, increase US harvest and good Brazil weather still offers resistance. Trade estimates US Sep 1 stocks near 242 mil bu vs 257 ly. Range 215-264.
Wheat is higher on Black Sea concerns. US dry weather is also supportive. USDA estimated that 31 pct of US winter wheat crop is planted. Short to very short HRW soils range from 65 to 95 pct. Russia could annex 30 pct of Ukraine wheat acres or 8-10 mmt. Russia warns of use of Nukes. Trade estimates US Sep 1 stocks near 1,776 mil bu vs 1,774 ly. Range 1,663-1,844. Trade estimates US wheat crop at 1,778 mil bu vs USDA 1,783.
Corn futures are higher following rebound in oversold commodity prices. US corn export sales commit is running only 50 pct vs last year. USDA estimated US corn harvest at 12 pct vs 17 ly. Only 58 pct of crop is mature vs 72 ly. USDA left crop rated 52 pct G/E. US cash remains strong with farmer selling slow and feeders, ethanol buyers and exporters needing corn. Matif corn is lower as France harvest advances and there is talk EU corn demand could be down 5-10 pct. Trade estimates US Sep 1 stocks near 1,512 mil bu vs 1,235 ly. Range 1,420-1,633.
US Dollar is lower. US stocks, Crude, gold, silver, copper coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are higher. No one is calling for a top in the Dollar and bottom in commodities yet as Central Banks are not done in raising interest rates.
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