Written Commentary
CRUDE OIL
June Crude Oil was mostly steady overnight despite President Trump extending the ceasefire indefinitely late yesterday. Prices firmed up on reports that at least three container ships were hit by gunfire in the Strait of Homuz, presumably by the Iran Revolutionary Guard Corp. A senior Iranian official did tell Reuters that Iran’s negotiators had been willing to attend another round of talks if the US abandoned a policy of pressure and threats. In the meantime, the US blockade continues. Hungary and Slovakia could see a resumption of deliveries of Russian via the Druzhba pipeline through Ukraine soon. The pipeline’s capacity is 1.2 million to 1.4 million barrels a day, but it could potentially be expanded to 2 million barrels a day.
PRODUCTS
API gasoline stocks were -5.2 million barrels for the week ending April 17 versus an average expectation from a Reuters poll of -1.5 million. Distillates were -4.6 million versus -2.5 million expected. The weekly EIA report will be released this morning. June RBOB is back in the vicinity of contract highs.
NATURAL GAS
June Natural Gas closed higher on Tuesday, and as Reuters noted, this was the first time prices rose for five days in a row since January. The 6-10 and 8-14 day maps show mostly normal/below-normal temps in the northern two thirds of the US, but much below normal temps are avoided. This does open the door for a more conventional heating demand period after the preponderance of above normal temps and low heating demand of the past few months. However, it is getting late in the season to see much effect from changes in the weather. LSEG said average gas output in the lower 48 states are averaging 110.4 billion cubic feet per day (bcfd) so far in April, the same as in March and below the record 110.7 bcfd from December.
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