ADMIS News
COCOA
December Cocoa is holding near a four-week high, supported by news that NY cocoa futures will be added to the Bloomberg Commodity Index next year—an inclusion Citi says could bring $2.1 billion in investment inflows. Supply concerns also lend support, with political tensions in Cameroon following last week’s election and renewed instability risks in Nigeria. Cameroon, the world’s fifth-largest cocoa producer, contributes about 320,000 tons annually. Barry Callebaut reported a 6.8% drop in annual sales, while favorable rains continue in southern West Africa, aiding late-season crop development. ICE cocoa stocks fell 9,590 bags to 1.811 million, their lowest since March.
COTTON
December Cotton slipped below its 9-day moving average for the first time since October 24, signaling potential for additional selling. China announced it will suspend up to 15% in retaliatory tariffs on certain US farm goods starting November 10, while maintaining some 10% levies. A stronger US dollar—at its highest since May—continues to pressure export prospects. USDA confirmed it will release its November supply/demand report despite the government shutdown. In India, weather has turned much drier after excessive rains likely damaged crops, while US harvest conditions remain mostly favorable across major producing regions, aided by expected dry weather in the coming days.
COFFEE
March Coffee held just below last week’s contract high after reaching its highest level since October 23. Traders await updates on potential US-Brazil trade talks that could remove the 50% coffee import tariff, though no new developments have followed the Trump–Lula meeting. ICE certified stocks fell by another 1,211 bags to 430,270, the lowest since March 2024. Recent rains have improved soil moisture in Brazil’s arabica regions, supporting prospects for the 2026/27 crop. In Vietnam, Typhoon Kalmaegi may bring heavy rain and localized flooding to the Central Highlands, but major damage to the robusta crop is not expected.
SUGAR
March Sugar briefly dipped to a new contract low overnight but failed to hold, which could trigger short covering. Brazil’s Conab slightly cut its 2025/26 Center-South cane crop forecast while raising sugar output to 41.34 million tons and lowering cane-based ethanol output. Recent UNICA data showed mills shifting more cane toward ethanol in early October, hinting at potential moderation in sugar production. Hydrous ethanol prices have outperformed sugar, though mills are still expected to devote a historically high share of cane—48.65%—to sugar next season. In Ukraine, sugar output reached 700,000 tons so far this season, down from 810,000 last year, with fewer refineries operating but higher beet sugar content.
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