Written Commentary
PRECIOUS METALS
Gold: Gold prices are sharply lower despite the geopolitical backdrop as a sharply higher dollar and reduced rate-cut bets undercut safe haven demand. The dollar index is 0.92% higher at 99.29, while April contracts for COMEX gold are down 4.5% at $5,074, signaling that traders favor the dollar over the safe haven. The renewed geopolitical risk backdrop adds another layer of uncertainty heading into Friday’s jobs report, with markets watching whether labor data alters expectations for the Federal Reserve’s policy path.
Global oil and gas shipping rates have soared, stoking inflation fears alongside the rise in energy prices, after Iran’s Revolutionary Guards said on Monday that the Strait of Hormuz is closed to marine traffic and the country will fire on any ship trying to pass.
Markets also remain in wait-and-see mode on US trade policy after Friday’s Supreme Court ruling against President Trump’s tariff measures. The administration has since imposed a blanket 15% levy on imports, while existing trade agreements with the EU and India remain in flux after both sides paused implementation or negotiations. President Trump also warned that countries retreating from recent trade deals could face higher duties under alternative trade statutes, keeping uncertainty elevated.
From a macro perspective, recent data continues to support a patient Federal Reserve stance. Headline and core PCE both rose 0.4% in December, lifting core inflation to 3.0% year-over-year, while Q4 GDP slowed to 1.4% from 4.4% in Q3 amid weaker government spending and exports. The combination of moderating growth and sticky services inflation reduces the urgency for near-term easing.
Structural support for gold remains intact, as central banks continue diversifying reserves and adding to bullion holdings, reinforcing a steady underlying bid into 2026.
Silver: Silver futures are down 9.8% to $79.61
Platinum: Platinum is down 12.00% to $2,033.
BASE METALS
Copper: Copper prices edged lower as a firmer dollar and escalating tensions in Iran weighed on the demand outlook. Continued exchanges between US and Iranian forces, including strikes on energy infrastructure and threats to disrupt traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, pushed global energy prices higher and lifted the dollar on safe-haven flows. Elevated energy costs also raise the risk of a slowdown in manufacturing activity, potentially dampening base metal demand.
US ISM manufacturing printed at 52.4, above forecasts and marking a second consecutive month of expansion, though slightly below January’s 52.6. Strength in new orders and production supported the headline figure, while employment and broader demand signals remained subdued. Meanwhile, last week’s Supreme Court ruling, which reduced tariff uncertainty, has helped stabilize sentiment in parts of Asia following the Lunar New Year, offering some underlying support to industrial metals despite near-term geopolitical headwinds.
Zinc: Zinc dropped 0.45%.
Aluminum: Aluminum was down 0.42% to $3,181.
Tin: Tin declined 6.18% to $50,365
Lead: Lead was up 0.15%.
Nickel: Nickel rose 0.41%.
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