Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. Argentina lowered export tax. US stocks are mixed to lower. Stocks made new highs Wednesday due to Trump wanting lower Crude and US rates, US Dollar is lower. Crude is higher. Gold is higher. US President Trump asked foreign investors to invest in US. President Trump is considering more sanctions and tariffs on Russia if they do not reach agreement to end the war. Trump also warning of tariffs on Canada, Mexico and EU.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.55. Dalian soybean, soymeal were steady. Dalian palmoil and soyoil were lower. Trade still trying to evaluate China and US trade relations. There are rumors China could auction soybean from reserve. S Brazil and C and N Argentina saw rains overnight. Argentina lowered export tax 80 cents per bushel. Argentina lowered soybean crop 1 mmt to 49.6 vs USDA 52.0. Drier weather could help advance early Brazil harvest. Rains are forecast next week. Weekly US soybean export sales are est at 600-1,800 mt vs 569 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.87. Dalian corn was lower. Drier weather may help Brazil corn planting. Brazil 2nd crop planting is near 3 pct vs 8 ly. Argentina lowered corn crop 1 mmt to 49.0 and vs USDA 51.0. Argentina lowered export tax 13-15 cents per bushel. Key could be global/Chinese demand.. Fund long corn and short wheat is near record wide and suggest corn is vulnerable for selling if funds want to rebalance corn long. Weekly US corn export sales are est at 700-1,700 mt vs 1,024 last week.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.51. KWH is near 5.69. MWH is near 6.01. Argentina lowered export tax $5-6 per tonne. The bulls point to the fund short and multiple N Hemisphere potential weather problems while the bears note that all major origins demand could be lower. US plains dry and cold. Temps will moderate. Fund short wheat and long corn is near record wide and suggest wheat is vulnerable for higher prices if funds want to rebalance wheat short. Weekly US wheat export sales are est at 200-600 mt vs 513 last week.
Interested in more futures markets? Explore our Market Dashboards here.
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
