Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SU is down. CU is down. WU is up. KWU is up. MWU is up. US stocks are higher. US Dollar is higher. Crude is higher. Global equity and energy markets are trying to stabilize after recent rout.
SU is near 10.02. Dalian soymeal, soyoil and palmoil futures were lower. Trade continues to take out supply risk. This week, most of the east US Midwest will be dry. Average trade guess for US soybean yield is 52.5 and a crop of 4,469 mil bu vs USDA July 4,435. Trade also est US 2023/24 soybean carryout near 349 vs USDA July 345. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout near 465 vs USDA July 435. Bulls need China to buy US to reverse the downward price momentum.
CU is near 3.85. Dalian corn futures were lower. Trade continues to take out supply risk. This week, most of the east US Midwest will be dry. Average trade guess for US corn yield is 182.2 and a crop of 15,112 mil bu vs USDA July 15,100. Key could be if USDA drops planted acres. Trade also est US 2023/24 corn carryout near 1,876 vs USDA July 1,877. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout near 2,096 vs USDA July 2.097. Bulls need World to buy US to reverse the downward price momentum. Trade still has to deal with fact US farmers have 2023 corn to sell over next few weeks and have sold little 2024 crop. US June ethanol exports were record 963 mil gals.
WU is near 5.46. World wheat prices are higher after Egypt announced a unique tender for 3.8 mmt of wheat. There may be too much prices, logistics and freight unknown to sell that much wheat Oct-Feb. Still the demand offered support. Most could see 200-600 mt for Oct. Average trade guess for US wheat crop is 2015 mil bu vs USDA July 2.008.. Trade est US 2024/25 carryout near 862 vs USDA July 856.
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