Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Finally it is Friday. Grains are mixed to lower. Most commodity markets are lower. Risk off? SH is down 3 cents and near 14.22. SMH is near 397.7. BOH is up and near 63.45. 65.00 resistance? CH is down 1 cent and near 6.10. 6.17 resistance? WH is down 3 cents and near 7.87. KWH is down 2 cents and near 7.94. MWH is down 1 cent and near 9.43.
US Tech stocks are lower. Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold, silver, copper, coffee, cocoa, sugar and cotton are lower. Bitcoin is lower. Trade liquidating risk in front of US rate hikes, uncertainty over Russia and Ukraine tension. US and Russia meeting in Geneva today.
Dalian soybeans, soymeal, soyoil, rapeseed oil, palmoil and corn are all higher and followed US gains. Palmoil higher on talk Indonesia will increase biodiesel use and could reduce exports.
Weekly US corn export sales est at 500-1,000 mt, soybeans 600-1,200 and wheat 100-400.
Argentina forecast is wet. Paraguay, S Brazil, Argentina 6-10 day is dry. US South plains dry.
USDA estimated SA soybean crop at 194 mmt down record 9.5 for Jan. Could be 14 mmt lower. Rumors China buying 1.5 mmt US new crop US SB. China meal stocks low. Hog numbers up. SH over 14.00, SMH back below $400, BOH above 63. Overnight highest since Oct 2021. SH 7 month high, BOH 4 month high. March Board crush below 150, Oil share 6 week high.
Matif corn higher. EU needs corn. USDA est SA crop 169 mmt vs 137 ly. Could be 10-12 lower. CH over 6.00 and highest close in 2022. Talk of higher US corn demand supportive. There were rumors China looking to buy 1.5 mmt new crop US corn before Phase 2 deal. Some could see US 21/22 corn carryout near 1,195 vs USDA 1,540. Exports 2,680. USDA 2,425.
US HRW wheat weather drier than normal could extend into spring. EU/Russia weather normal. Est US 2021/22 wheat carryout 585-700. Matif wheat futures lower. EU cheapest wheat. Trade est US 2022 corn acres 91.5 vs 93.4 ly, soybeans 89.0 vs 87.2 and wheat 49.0 vs 46.7.
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