Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
TGIF. Grains are lower. US stocks are lower. S/P near key support. US Dollar is higher and making new highs. Crude, gold, silver, copper, coffee, sugar and cotton are lower. SN is down 14 cents and near 17.05. SX is near 15.20. SMN is near 460.1. BON is near 79.46. CN is down 4 cents and near 7.91. CZ is near 7.32. WN is down 13 cents and near 10.63. KWN is down 5 cents and near 11.38. MWN is down 2 cents and near 11.52.
US Fed poised to raise interest rates 50 basis points to fight inflation. China also talking of fighting inflation. Dalian soybeans, soymeal and corn were lower. Soyoil and rapeseed oil are higher.
US Midwest rains are in ND, SE IA, and IL. Some feel US 30 day weather forecast could help corn plantings. C Brazil and Argentina are dry, E EU is dry. W EU is normal.
China is short soybeans but their crush margins are negative raising concern about soybean imports. US soybean export commit is down 6 pct vs ly. US new crop soybean commit is record high with China the biggest buyer. Argentina soybean harvest near 31 pct vs 19 ly and 42 ave. Crop is rated 18 G/E vs 23 lw. Canada 2022 canola acres 22.1 vs 22.5 ly.
Brazil is dry. Brazil and Argentina corn export prices are a discount to US. US corn export commit is down 16 pct vs ly. Lower SA corn prices could lower US exports. Despite the war, Ukraine spring crop plantings is near 20 pct.
Wheat futures lower on lower US export demand. US export commit is near 705 mil bu or down 25 pct ly. US a premium to EU and Russia. World buyers are rolling demand to new crop. 2022 Canada wheat acres est at 24.1 mil acres vs 23.4 last year. US 30 day south plains weather is warm and dry. Argentina is dry. Some lowering their 2022 wheat crop 25 pct or 2 mmt.
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