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Supply Issues Persist For Coffee


Cocoa’s downdraft on both sides of the Thanksgiving holiday has quickly dropped the market back into “bargain” price territory. In spite of bullish supply factors and a positive longer-term demand outlook, global risk sentiment will need to see a significant rebound before cocoa prices can find their footing.


Coffee prices have been resilient in the face of the new “Omicron” COVID variant as stronger at-home consumption should offset a larger portion of lost business from restaurant and retail shops. Coffee also has a bullish supply outlook that can help prices hold their ground near multi-year highs.


March cotton gapped lower on the open Friday and sold off sharply on elevated concerns about a new variant of the Covid-19 virus. The selling pushed the market down to the lowest price level since October 29th. Reports of the new variant emerging from southern African nations that appears to spread more quickly, and which has raised some concerns that it may be more resilient to the vaccines panicked the markets.


Sugar’s post-holiday downdraft was fueled in large part by severe weakness in key outside markets, but it could also face headwinds by a negative shift in demand prospects as well. With the potential for a third negative monthly result in a row, sugar could be vulnerable to additional long liquidation early this week.

Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone.  Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition.  The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM.  The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared.  The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets.  However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.

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