Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. US Midwest should continue to see showers. Rains and normal temps into the first week of August could suggest near record US corn and soybean yields. Supply driven bear market continues. US and EU reached a trade deal. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Gold is unchanged while silver and copper are lower. US stocks are marginally higher.
SOYBEANS
SU is near 9.95. Dalian soybean, soymeal, plamoil and soyoil futures were lower. Monthly nearby soybean futures support is near 9.60. Sep board crush margin tested a new high near 2.20. North and east corn belt rains should help US soybean crop. Most still feel above average US crop and record Brazil crop should eventually weigh on futures. Some est US 25/26 carryout to closer to 510 vs USDA 310. US new crop soybean sales are below last 5 year average. Argentina dropped their export tax.
CORN
CU is near 3.96. Dalian corn futures were lower. Monthly nearby corn futures support is near 3.70. North and east corn belt rains should help US corn crop. Corn futures are in supply driven bear market. Above average US crop and record Brazil crop should continue to weigh on futures. Some could now see 25/26 US corn carryout could new be closer to 2,350 vs USDA 1,660. Higher US plains supply of HRW and sorghum could drop corn for feed use. US COF report was bullish due to tight supply. Higher retail beef prices could slow consumer demand.
WHEAT
WU is near 5.34. KWU is near 5.25. MWU is near 5.84. Russia is beginning to offer wheat for export. EU crop is 15-17 mmt above ly and looking for buyers. EU quality is still an issue. Annual US ND wheat crop tour est yield at 49 bpa vs 54.5 ly and USDA estimate of 59. Key crop scout suggest the final crop could be higher than the tour estimate. Nearby Chicago wheat futures could be in a 4.75-6.00 trading range. Some est US 25/26 carryout to closer to 870 vs USDA 890. Exports could be closer to 870 mil bu vs USDA estimate of 850.
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