Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Super Tuesday. Grains are lower. SK is down 5 cents and near 11.49. SMK is near 331.9. BOK is near 44.93. CK is down 1 cent and near 4.28. WK is down 2 cents and near 5.61. KWK is down 2 cents and near 5.77. MWK is up 1 cent and near 6.61. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Coffee, cocoa and sugar are higher. Crude lower after China set ambitious growth target.
SK is near 11.49. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in soybean futures. SK resistance is near 11.71. Support 11.28. US soybean season to date exports are down 20 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 12 pct. There was talk China bought 5-6 cargoes of Mar-Apr-May Brazil soybeans. New US soymeal sales helped soybean rally only to fall off session highs into the close. US soybean export basis +68, Brazil -35. Brazil soybean harvest near 50 pct. Trade watching USDA March est of SA soybean crop. One crop watcher est Brazil crop at 145 mmt and Argentina 50 mmt.
CK is near 4.28. Key CK resistance remains near 4.34. Support 4.08. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in corn futures. US corn season to date exports are up 35 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 26 pct. There were rumors of China interest in US PNW corn. China announced new producer cost insurance program to try to increase production 50 mmt. US fob price $191 vs Ukraine $177. US Midwest warm and dry. Should help early plantings.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia and EU wheat prices continue to slide lower. Below normal US, EU and Black Sea weather is needed to push futures higher. Managed funds continue to be large net shorts in wheat futures. US season to date wheat exports are down 17 pct vs ly. USDA est a 4 pct drop. Some est 1.1-1.3 TX acres in wildfires. Still, TX crop is rated 53 pct G/E vs 19 ly. KS is rated 53 G/E vs 17 ly. OK 65 G/E vs 39 last year. Argentina Dec-Feb exports 4 mmt vs 1.5 ly.
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