Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Super Thursday. Grains are higher. Inflationary traders are buying breaks in the grain room. US Dollar is higher. US stocks are higher. Crude is higher. Gold is lower. Coffee is higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.65. SMH is near 310.2. BOH is near 45.44. Dalian soybean, soymeal, palmoil and soyoil are higher. Higher China prices linked to late Brazil harvest, US delay in Canada tariffs slowing Canada canola sales and domestic feed buyers covering shorts. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to evaluate size of Paraguay and Argentina crop. Rains fell in C Argentina. Hot temps may offset the rains. There is talk late Brazil harvest prompted China to buy US PNW soybeans. India weather remains warm and dry. Weekly US soybean export sales are estimated at 300-1,100 mt vs 438 last week.
CORN
CH is near 4.95. Dalian corn futures ended higher. US PNW export price is lowest to Asia. Fact Trump is talking EU tariffs must be monitored. Brazil is seeing light rain. Rains are forecast next week. Trade trying to estimate SA crop size. Brazil ethanol plants are coming on line with forecast of higher production. Given tighter US corn outlook, there is little room for lower SA crops. USDA announced 330 mt US corn delivered to Mexico. Weekly US ethanol production was up 9 pct vs last week and up 7 pct vs ly. Stocks were up 2 pct vs last week and up 6 pct ly . Weekly US corn export sales are estimated at 850-1,500 mt vs 1.358 last week. Ukraine est soil moisture levels are lowest in 7 years.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.73. KWH is near 5.93. MWH is near 6.19. Drop in World buying and currencies could offer resistance. World 2025 weather uncertainty could offer support. Matif wheat futures rallied due to concern about west EU crop and reluctant farmer selling. EU weather is drier. Ukraine and Russia weather id dry. US plains are dry with colder temps newt week. India is warm and dry. Weekly US wheat export sales are estimated at 200-550 mt vs 456 last week. China delayed or redirected 600 mt of wheat destined for import.
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