Strong Ivory Coast Arrivals

COCOA

December Cocoa is lower this morning in the wake of the weekly Ivory Coast cocoa arrivals report, which showed a strong pace despite recent concerns that recent above average rainfall would have interrupted harvest and drying. Arrivals totaled 80,000 metric tons for the week ending November 3, up from 63,000 for the same week last year. Cumulative arrivals since the marketing year began on October 1 have reached 365,000 tons, up 26% from a year ago. Arrivals are off to their fastest start in at least four years. Industry sources told Reuters that cocoa farmers in Ghana were hoarding beans in anticipation of higher prices. They said that farmers were reacting to comments by the Vice President, who is running for President and who told supporters four weeks ago that the government would raise prices for farmers. Ghana lost more than a third of its 2023/24 output to smuggling, according to the cocoa regulator Cocobod. Ghana has already raised the price 45% from last season, but it is slightly below the Ivory Coast official price. World Weather Service said West African rainfall will be limited to areas near to the coast, which is normal for this time of year. This will be good for maturation and eventual harvesting.

COFFEE

December Coffee is near unchanged this morning following Friday’s selloff. Recent rainfall in Brazil has brought in ample flowering for the 2025 crop, and a continuing pattern of rain has improved the outlook. The question is how well the crop will recover from the drought earlier this year, which had stressed trees. World Weather Service reported that key growing areas of southern Sumatra and Java, Indonesia saw rains over the weekend that brought relief to dryness there. Now that seasonal rain has finally evolved, there may be some potential for improved coffee flowering and pollination in coming weeks. Vietnam’s Central Highlands is expected to receive frequent rainfall, and a tropical disturbance will bring moderate to heavy rain to the central coast this week.

COTTON

December Cotton is higher this morning and inside the upper half of Friday’s move higher. The market saw pressure last week from a selloff in equities, but the equity markets stabilized on Friday after the monthly jobs report came in lower than expected and increased expectations for another Fed rate cut. The dollar had a wild day on Friday, first breaking and then rallying into the close, but it is lower again this morning, which does help improve export prospects. US export sales have improved over the past three weeks, but they are still running behind the pace needed to reach the USDA forecast. Some farmer selling was noted on the rally, but heavy rains in west Texas likely slowed harvest and may have damaged the crop. World Weather Service said much of West Texas reported 1.00 to 2.00 inches, although a few northern counties reported 2.00 to 4.76 inches. As of last Sunday, 48% of the Texas crop had been harvested and 95% had bolls open. The next update will come out this afternoon.

SUGAR

March Sugar was nearly unchanged overnight after Friday’s big outside reversal action lower. Brazil has seen a wetter trend over the past month after an extended hot and dry pattern most of the year. This rain should be beneficial for the 2025/26 crop, but it could slow harvest and production for this year, especially if the trend continues. Harvest usually slows to a halt in late November-early December. Some agronomists has been expecting an early end to this year’s production and a late start next year, but the rains may have at least boosted expectations for next year. Still, supplies could get tight in the first part of 2025. BMI said last week they expect tight supplies to persist into next year. World Weather Service said that Brazil sugarcane areas should be sufficiently wet to support ongoing crop development. Much of Center South Brazil saw ample rain over the weekend.

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