ADMIS News
COFFEE
Forecasts for drier than normal weather from late March to May raises concerns about Brazil’s upcoming crop, but strong exports of the current crop appear to be keeping the market in a choppy, sideway pattern. Brazil’s trade group Cecafe said that their nation’s February Arabica green coffee exports totaled 2.81 million bags, which was 36.5% above year-ago levels. This reflects Brazil’s large 2023/24 output, but it also indicates that port congestion has eased, allowing exporters to make up for previous delays.
COCOA
Following a lukewarm finish last week, it took little time for cocoa to regain upside momentum. West African supply issues have the market looking at a record global production deficit this season. Ivory Coast port arrivals totaled 27,000 tonnes for the week ending March 10, up from 18,000 for the same week last year. However, total arrivals since the season began on October 1 are running 28.1% lower than a year ago at 1.114 million tonnes. West African growing areas have daily rainfall in the forecast through the middle of next week, as the region’s dry season comes to an end. Ivory Coast officials expect mid-crop production to come in at least 20% below last year.
COTTON
The buildup of spec long positions in cotton is hanging over the market and would seem to limit further upside unless there is a resumption of the strong exports sales from earlier in the year. US supplies are tight and getting tighter, but world supplies are not, and this leave traders concerned that the US may have priced itself out of the market on last month’s rally.
SUGAR
Sugar prices saw strong upside follow-through from a positive weekly reversal, with the market finding support from recent bullish supply developments. The likelihood that next season’s Brazil Center-South sugar production will be lower than this season’s 42 million tonnes (due to drier than normal conditions early this year) has underpinned sugar prices early this week. India is likely to extend its export ban through next year, as a smaller cane planted area for the 2024/25 season increases the likelihood of a decline in sugar production.
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