Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are lower. SF is down 7 cents and near 13.78. SMF is near 447.5. BOF is near 52.24. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.87. WH is down 4 cents and near 5.83. KWH is down 2 cents and near 6.46. MWH is down 1 cent and near 7.47. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is higher. Crude is lower. Gold is higher. US avoided Friday shutdown.
SF is near 13.78. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. Brazil farmers waiting for next weeks rains. Argentina on hold until after weekend elections and return of normal rains. US Oct NOPA crush was a record 189 mil bu. Some look for final US crush 20 mil bu higher. End of Oct NOPA soyoil stocks were 1,099 mil lbs and near Dec,2014 record low. Soyoil yield dropped to 3 year low. Dalian palmoil and soyoil prices saw some profit taking. Weekly Soybean export sales est at 2,900-4,500. Some could see final exports down 15 mil bu.
CH is near 4.87. US domestic basis firmed on end of harvest and slow farmer selling. There remains too much rain in S Brazil. EU and GFS 6-10 Brazil C/N forecast has showers. Dryness returns to C/N Brazil early in Dec. Brazil farmer has slowed cash sales due to weather. Farmer also slowed 2nd crop plantings. Trade watching if new insurance policy will increase Ukraine exports. Trade will be closely watching Argentina elections this weekend. Weekly corn export sales are est 900-1,500 mt. Some could see final exports down 100 mil bu.
Wheat futures are lower. Russia is still offering wheat exports at lower prices. Much talk about record large fund short in MWZ. HRW gaining on SRW. HRS also gaining on SRW as demand for higher protein wheat offers support to HRW and HRS vs SRW. Weekly wheat export sales are est near 250-500 mt.
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