Written Commentary
MORNING LIVESTOCK FUTURES OUTLOOK
LIVE CATTLE COMPLEX
Speculators dominate livestock futures during non-spot months and the past 4 days are a good example. October 5, 2026 is first notice day for October 2026 live cattle so there is plenty of time for traders to move markets in the direction of what big speculative traders wants.
High gas prices have consumers buying the cheapest beef. High diesel prices are costing feedlots more to deliver cattle and packers more to deliver beef. So far, consumers aren’t seeing cheaper beef prices. Ground beef for 2026 is up 4.3% in 2026 compared to 2025. Ground beef in august 2026 was up .06 cents compared to July 2026.
LEAN HOG COMPLEX
Daily cash pork prices were higher Wednesday morning because bellies were up 11.25 on morning sales. By afternoon sales bellies were down $4.29. Bellies have been moving the carcass cutout. At the same time load volume has been light which makes the carcass prices subject to volatility.
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