Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are higher is traders gear up for the start of second quarter earnings. S&P 500 futures hit a new record high today, and NASDAQ futures are closing in on historical highs.
The 2:00 central time May consumer credit report is expected to show an increase of $8.3 billion.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell will deliver his semiannual testimony before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and to the House Financial Services Committee on Wednesday.
Powell will provide an overview of current economic conditions, and give an update of the Federal Reserve’s outlook for the economy.
The longer term fundamentals remain supportive to stock index futures.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
Futures are mixed.
On Friday, data showed the U.S. unemployment rate increased to a 2-½-year high of 4.1% in June, adding to signs of a cooling labor market. The nonfarm payrolls headline number was higher than predicted but the previous two months were revised substantially lower.
Financial futures markets are suggesting there will be two 25 basis point rate cuts in 2024, despite many Federal Reserve officials predicting only one fed funds rate reduction this year.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is a 74% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will lower its fed funds rate by 25 basis points at its September 18 meeting.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar index is steady.
The euro currency is steady after the second round of elections in France.
Exports from Germany declined by 3.6% month-over-month to a five-month low, making the first decline in three months.
The value of new home loans for owner-occupied homes in Australia fell 2.0% month-on-month, missing market forecasts of 2.0% growth.
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Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
