Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
US government in 15th day of partial shutdown. Grains are mixed to lower. US stocks are higher after Fed Chairman Powell concern about a slowdown in hiring which could suggest a drop in rates. USD is lower. Crude is lower and near $58. Gold is higher and above 4,200. US Midwest rains in C IA, WI,N IN. Central Brazil seeing rains. S Brazil and E Argentina wet.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.04. SX near lower end of range since Jan. Soyoil supported by talk Trump could terminate business with China cooking oil imports. This in retaliation of China not buying US soybeans. Lack of USDA October report, and now maybe November, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Some could see final US soybean yield slightly below USDA 53.0 but trade could see US final soybean exports drop 435 mil bu below USDA 1,685 which could increase US carryout and drop SX to 9.50. Weekly US exports were 36 mil bu which is down from 70 ly and near 33 needed to reach USDA goal. Exports to date down 26 pct vs ly and USDA est of down 10. US NOPA Sep soybean crush is est near 186 mil bu vs 177 ly. Argentina August soybean crush was up 21 pct vs ly. Conab est Brazil 2026 crop at 178 mmt vs USDA est of 175. Brazil soybean acres are est near 121 million. US is 81.
CORN
CZ is near 4.12. CZ near lower end of range since July. Bears feel last 30 pct of harvest will stress storage capacity and weigh on futures and cash basis. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Trade could see US corn yield slightly below USDA 186.7 but feed and residual could drop 200 mil bu and increase carryout closer to 2,464 mil bu and could drop CZ closer to 380. Weekly US corn exports were 44 mil bu vs 20 ly and 57 needed to reach USDA goal. Exports to date are up 65 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 5. Conab est 2026 Brazil corn crop at 138 mmt vs USDA 131.
WHEAT
WZ is near 4.93. WZ continues to drop from July high near 5.60. Lack of USDA October report, US export sales data and CFTC report is bearish. Weekly US exports were near 16 mil bu vs 14 ly and 15 needed to reach USDA goal. US exports are up 18 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 9.
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