Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Mixed trade across the Ag space overnight with the soybean complex slightly higher while feed grains are lower. Energy prices are mixed in volatile, 2 sided trade. Reuters is reporting that the US and Iran are reviewing a purposed peace plan that if agreed to would result in an immediate ceasefire and reopening of the Straits of Hormuz. Other reports suggest a peace plan for a 45 day ceasefire is being discussed, which would time for a more permanent peace agreement. What’s not clear is whether a deal can be reached before Tuesday’s deadline Pres. Trump has given Iran to reopen the Straits of Hormuz or face military strikes on the their power plants and bridges. Headline to headline trading continues. After making new contract highs spot WTI crude oil is down $1.10 per barrel near $110.45. Spot RBOB is down $.02 per gallon while HO is $.03 higher. Heavy rains across the central and ECB in the past week will ease drought readings ahead of the US spring plantings. Better prospects for rain late this week for parts of the WCB and SW Plain states that have so far missed out. Another week of healthy rains for the central corn belt and Great Lakes region. Southern growing areas of Argentina to see needed drying this week. Brazil to see a favorable mix of rain and sunshine over the next week. The US $$$ is slightly lower while stock indices are mixed.
Corn:
May-26 is down $.01 at $4.51 ¼ after holding 50 and 100 day MA support near $4.48. Dec-26 is down $.01 at $4.81 ¼. The USDA will provide its first planting progress report after today’s close while updated WASDE report on Thursday.
Soybeans:
May-26 beans are up $.05 at $11.68 ½ while Nov-26 beans are $.02 ½ higher at $11.56 ½. May-26 meal is up $3 at $318.20 while oil is up 6 points at 69.00. Friday’s CFTC report showed money managers bought just over 13k contracts of soybean oil extending their long position to a record large 135,809 contracts. Across the soybean complex MM’s bought nearly 21k contracts pushing their long position to a record high of 449,149 contracts. Overnight spot crush margins jumped out to a fresh 3 ½ year high at $2.92 bu. I look for Nov-26 beans to outperform Dec-26 corn in an effort to attract a few more acres to soybeans.
Wheat:
Prices range from $.04-$.08 lower. CGO May-26 is down $.04 at $5.94 ¼ while KC May-26 is down $.07 ¾ at $6.08. US winter wheat acres in drought jumped 8% LW to 65%, a new 52 week high, and well above the 37% from YA. Look for these reading to start easing this week. The USDA will release their 1st full winter wheat crop condition report after today’s close. Across the 3 classes of wheat MM’s were net buyers of nearly 28k contracts, extending their combined long position to 51,314 contracts, the largest since June-22. MM’s were net long CGO wheat for the first time since July-22. The United Nations FAO forecasts global wheat production will slip 1.7% in 2026 to 820 mil. tons. Ukrainian drone strikes sank a Russian vessel carrying wheat in the Sea of Azov over the weekend.
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