Written Commentary
MORNING OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. SH up 1 cent near 11.89. SMH is near 394.7. BOH is near 38.71. CH is down 1 cent and near 4.26. WH is up 4 cents and near 6.02. KWH is up 3 cents and near 5.64. US stocks, Crude and Gold are higher. US Dollar is lower.
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 46 yuan in soybeans, up 20 in Corn, up 18 in Soymeal, up 48 in Soyoil, and up 20 in Palm Oil. Malaysian palm oil prices were up 12 ringgit at 3,377 (basis March) mostly tracking rival veg, crude oil prices.
In Brazil, conditions will still be favorable for crop development in most of the nation. There will be some pockets that are drier than preferred, such as in southern Rio Grande do Sul, northeastern Bahia, and possibly some of western Mato Grosso do Sul.
In Argentina, a very important rain event is still expected Friday which will impact southern, central, and northeastern production areas of the region. Some pockets of Buenos Aires and far western production areas of the region will get disappointing amounts.
Weekly US corn export sales are est at 800-1,600 mt, soybeans 400-900 and wheat 250-650.
Informa will report US 2021 acres by crop today. They have been using 91.7 corn, 89.0 beans,46.0 wheat.
NOAA will be out today with their Jan-Mar US weather forecast.
Black Sea sunoil prices $524/mt, Canola oil near $475 and CBOT soyoil $430.
Russia fob wheat prices near $268-$270 vs US HRW $267. East EU prices cheapest to buyers.
2021 South America corn crop now est 14 mmt (560 mil bu) below USDA last estimate.
On Wednesday Managed funds were net sellers of 3,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 7,000 Corn; net even Soybeans; bought 4,000 lots of Soymeal, and; sold 1,000 lots of Soyoil. We estimate Managed Money net long 20,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 292,000 Corn; net long 214,000 Soybeans; net long 78,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 111,000 Soyoil.
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