Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Choppy trade waiting for Fed Chairman comments. Fed July minutes suggested rates should hold. World weather US Midwest forecast suggest August could be drier than normal for E IA,IL,IN,OH and KY. September could be drier for ND,SD,IA,MN and N IL.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.34 on reduced volume. Open interest remains high. Pro Farmer tour est IL pod count at 1,479 vs 1,419 ly and 3 district at 1,376 and up 6 oct vs ly. Scouts did report SDS in IA and Il beans. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. Higher soymeal futures support soybean despite higher Pro Farmer 2025 crop pod count vs ly and absence of China buying US soybeans. Brazil may slow down crush due to poor margins. This could be helping soymeal prices back close to near $300. Weekly new crop US soybean export sales are est at 400-1,000 mt vs 1,133 last week. One analyst est that Brazil could have 9-10 mmt of old crop soybean yet to sell. There was talk Argentina diverted a soymeal cargo due to quality concerns.
CORN
CZ is near 4.04 on reduced volume. Pro Farmer crop tour est IL corn yield near 199.5 vs 204.1 ly and 3 district IA yield at 197.9 vs 176.6 ly. Scouts did report rust in IA and Il corn. Dalian corn futures continue lower and new contract low. There has been some short covering adding some weather premium due to drier Midwest August weather. Cooler temps and concern about export demand could limit the upside. Weekly US new crop corn export sales are est at 900-2,000 mt vs 2,047 ly. Asia buying US has slowed. COF est at 98 pct, placements 91 pct. Weekly US ethanol production was down vs last year. Stocks were also down. Margins are positive.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.33. KWZ is near 5.26. Chicago and KC rallied off new lows. Both are oversold. WZ OI is high. Volume is also up. MWZ is near 5.90. Argentina and Australia futures also bounced off recent lows. There were unconfirmed rumors that China bought US SRW. China millers tend to buy a few cargoes annually. Estimates of Russia crop a little higher but quality could be poor. Weekly US wheat export sales are est 500-800 mt vs 722 last week.
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