Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly lower. US stocks are sharply lower. US Dollar is lower. Trump has yet to apply new tariffs. Some look for lower energy prices to weigh on the commodity index. Fridays COF placements could open cattle futures sharply higher.
SOYBEANS
SH is near 10.50.Dalian soybean and soymeal futures were lower. Soyoil was higher. Soymeal chart momentum has turned lower. S Brazil and C and N Argentina saw rains. Drier weather could help advance early Brazil harvest. Rains are forecast next week. Most estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 380 mil bu but could see 25 mil bu higher crush and 25 mil bu lower final exports. Most look for US farmers to reduce 2025 soybean acres 3.5-4.0 mil acres vs ly. Some could see US 2025/26 crush up 200 mil bu and exports down 200 mil bu. Weekly US soybean sales were 1,490 mt. Total commit is 42.3 mmt vs 37.9 ly. USDA goal is 49.6 mmt vs 46.1 ly. Brazil soybean sales are a record 8 mmt.
CORN
CH is near 4.83. Dalian corn futures were higher. Drier weather may help Brazil corn planting. Fund long corn and short wheat is near record wide and suggest corn is vulnerable for selling if funds want to rebalance corn long. Most estimate US 2024/25 carryout at 1,540 mil bu but could see 100 mil bu higher export and 175 mil bu lower feed and residual. Most look for US farmers to add 2.5-3.0 mil 2025 corn acres vs ly. Some could see US 2025/26 feed and residual up 125 mil bu, ethanol use up 100 but exports down 500 mil bu. Weekly US corn sales were 1,660 mt. Total commit is 41.9 mmt vs 32.4 ly. USDA goal is 62.2 mmt vs 58.2 ly.
WHEAT
WH is near 5.44. KWH is near 5.59. MWH is near 5.95. Matif futures traded higher early Friday but ended lower. Wheat futures are vulnerable for higher prices if funds want to rebalance wheat short. Weekly US wheat sales were 164 mt. Total commit is 17.7 mt vs 16.5 ly. USDA goal is 23.1 mmt vs 19.2 ly. WH supported near 5.20-5.40 WH with resistance near 6.00. Russia crop could now be below 85 mmt vs 81.5 ly. Lower USD could offer support wheat futures.
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