Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are slightly higher. SH is up 3 cents and near 12.27. SMH is near 357.3 BOH is near 48.09. CH is up 1 cent and near 4.47. WH is up 2 cents and near 5.98. KWH is up 3 cents and near 6.10. MWH is unch and near 7.00. US stocks are lower. US Dollar is lower. Crude is lower. Gold is higher.
CH is near 4.47. One crop watcher estimated Brazil corn crop near 115 mmt vs USDA 127 and Argentina near 56 mmt vs USDA 55. Dalian corn futures were lower. Season to date US corn exports are up 28 pct vs ly and USDA forecast of 26 pct higher. There is little news about increase China import needs with farmers liquidating hog herd. One crop watcher increased slightly US 2024 corn planted acres to 93.0 million vs 92.5 previous and 94.6 ly. New crop prices are near breakeven. US farmer remains slow seller of 2023 crop and may have as much as 65-70 pct of the crop unsold.
SH is near 12.27. One crop watcher estimated Brazil soybean crop near 149 mmt vs USDA 157 and Argentina near 52 mmt vs USDA 50. Brazil soybean yields are improving as harvest advances. Argentina farmer is not selling. Argentina government could encourage or force farmers to sell to increase export revenues. Soyoil futures rallied Monday on news Phillips 66 was approved to operate a renewable diesel plant. They also asked approval to use Argentina soyoil as feedstock. Argentina soyoil is subject to 19 pct import duty. China estimated sow herd down 5 pct but hog production up 4 pct and highest since 2014 as farmers liquidate herd. US season to date exports are down 22 pct vs ly and USDA 12 pct forecasted drop. One crop watcher lowered slightly US 2024 soybean planted acres to 85.5 million vs 86.0 previous and 83.6 ly. New crop prices are below breakeven.
WH is near 5.98. KWH is near 6.10. MWH is near 7.00. There was a little low volume short covering on some concern about US and Canada crop weather. There is also geopolitical uncertainty in Black Sea with Russia increasing bombing Key Ukraine cities and more uncertainty over Red Sea logistics. There is some talk of increase demand for Australia wheat exports due to Red Sea restrictions. There is some talk Australia crop could be near 30 mmt vs USDA 25. There is also talk of Brazil need to import milling wheat from Argentina with Brazil crop quality down. US wheat season to date wheat exports are down 16 pct vs ly and USDA forecast of a 4 pct drop. One crop watcher estimated US 2024 all wheat acres at 47.2 vs 47.0 previous and 49.5 ly. Same group estimate US 2024 CRP acres at 24.8 vs 22.9 ly.
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