Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold prices slipped ahead of today’s policy decision by the Fed, where an interest rate cut is widely expected. However, the outlook for 2026 will be the center of attention as the outlook for 2026 remains uncertain given the mix of opinions from FOMC members. Yesterday’s JOLTS data was supportive of a rate hold and could give reason for some officials to insist on holding rates until further data on the economy is available. Job openings increased by 12,000 to 7.670 million in October, up from 7.658 million in September. The September figure showed a 431,000 jump from August’s 7.227 million, with both months surpassing expectations of 7.2 million, signaling a labor market that has held up well despite the government shutdown and impact of tariffs. Data last week showed that US consumer spending grew moderately in September, while the Fed’s PCE inflation gauge met forecasts at 2.8%. The spending figures reflected a slowdown in economic momentum amid rising costs, while private payroll figures saw their steepest decline in over two and a half years in November, with a net 32,000 decline per ADP. Meanwhile, Challenger, Gray, & Christmas’s layoff report in October (153,074) and November (71,321) indicated that a large number of people lost their jobs.
The dynamics of the economy on a surface level appear to be mixed, and the absence of government data due to the shutdown only made the picture of the economy foggier. However, the JOLTS report, which measures job openings, new hires, employee quits or layoffs, and other turnover, paints a much different story regarding actual layoffs that took place during those months vs. Challenger’s figures. October layoffs, which are labeled as separations in the report, were not elevated compared to previous readings and were below pre-pandemic trends.
Markets will also monitor any news regarding the Supreme Court’s ruling on President Trump’s sweeping tariffs, as the president recently signaled that he expects an unfavorable ruling. President Trump reiterated on Tuesday that the effects of appealing the tariffs could be disastrous for the economy, signaling that he could be expecting an unfavorable ruling towards his trade policies. Trump did suggest that the tariffs could stay but would require a longer implementation process, while calling the ruling the greatest threat to national security in history. In a social media post on Sunday, Trump argued that his method of instituting tariffs is far less cumbersome than other methods, suggesting that if the court knocks down his tariffs, there are still feasible ways to implement them.
Silver: Silver futures are up 0.3% to $61.03. Silver has found recent strength in expectations that industrial demand for silver will pick up in the coming years. Sectors including solar energy, EV’s, data centers, and artificial intelligence will drive industrial demand higher through 2030, the Silver Institute industry association recently noted in a research report. Prices have also been supported by persistently low supplies and dwindling global inventories, which have contributed to a supply-demand deficit that is expected to be maintained over the coming years.
Platinum: Platinum is down 2.7% at $1,654.
Base Metals
Copper: Copper prices rebounded, nearing record levels again as hopes of stimulus from China provided support. Benchmark three-month copper on the LME gained 1.2% to $11,626 after having touched a record peak of $11,771 on Monday. Supply worries, a weaker dollar, and expectations that the Fed will lower rates today have set up bullish conditions for the metal. Copper gains have also been supported by flows of metal to the US on expectations of tariffs being imposed, tightening supplies in the rest of the world. Market rumors that the Chinese government is planning a 400 billion yuan ($56.63 billion) government mortgage subsidy package provided support for prices, as the property sector is a key consumer of industrial metals. Data out of China on Wednesday also showed that deflationary strains are persisting and domestic demand remains weak.
China has recently pledged to keep expanding domestic demand and the broader economy in 2026. The Politburo, a top decision-making body of the ruling Communist Party, said to state media on Monday. Elsewhere, China reported a drop in copper imports for a second consecutive month in November, as rising prices of the metal blunted appetite for shipments.
LME-COMEX arbitrage continues to send a flow of copper into the US ahead of potential tariffs on US copper imports, which has drawn down LME stocks and sent COMEX warehouses to all-time highs. Comex warehouses currently sit at just above 436,000 tons, while LME stocks are below 100,000 tons. Concerns over tight supply conditions outside the US remain elevated as expectations of deficits in 2026 persist following several mine disruptions this year. Glencore recently lowered its 2026 copper production guidance to a range with a midpoint of 840,000 tons for 2026, down from 930,000 previously, highlighting the drop in output that has led to forecasts of strong deficits in 2026. The copper market is expected to enter a global refined deficit of 330,000 tons in 2026.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.2% to $3,097.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.3% to $2,865.
Tin: Tin climbed 1.7% to $40,550.
Lead: Lead advanced 0.5% to $1,987.
Nickel: Nickel was little changed at $14,735.
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