Written Commentary
STOCK INDEX FUTURES
Stock index futures are lower.
Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s comments on Friday were neutral to slightly hawkish on balance when he suggested it is ”premature” to talk of monetary easing.
The 9:00 central time October factory orders report is expected to show a decline of 2.6%.
CURRENCY FUTURES
The U.S. dollar is higher today. However, since early October the greenback has been undermined due to ideas that the Federal Reserve has concluded its interest rate hiking cycle.
German exports unexpectedly fell in October, edging down 0.2% from the previous month. This compares to the forecast of a 1.1% increase.
German businesses are becoming more pessimistic for 2024 and do not expect a recovery. A survey showed only 23% of companies were optimistic about next year, while 35% had negative expectations, according to a survey of over 2,200 firms by the Cologne-based German economic institute (IW).
The annual inflation rate in Switzerland slowed to 1.4% in November 2023, which was the lowest rate since October 2021.
INTEREST RATE MARKET FUTURES
There is a growing consensus among analysts that the Federal Reserve has concluded its rate hiking cycle.
There are no Federal Reserve speakers scheduled for today, which is in keeping with its self-imposed blackout guideline in advance of its upcoming policy meeting.
Financial futures markets are predicting there is almost a 100% probability that the Federal Open Market Committee will keep its fed funds rate unchanged at its December 13 policy meeting.
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