Written Commentary
Precious Metals
Gold: Gold futures are higher with prices gaining support from a weaker dollar and ADP’s dismal nonfarm payrolls report, which added to expectations that the Fed will cut rates in October and December. The ADP report showed US businesses shed 32,000 jobs in September, defying expectations of a 52,000 increase. Safe-haven demand has also layered in some support for gold prices as the US government failed to pass a temporary funding bill, causing a government shutdown. The shutdown could also delay the release of Friday’s nonfarm payrolls report, although the Fed likely does not need the report to make up is mind on rate cuts. Markets pricing a 96.8% chance that the Fed will cut rates in October, while odds of a cut in December increased from 77.3% on Tuesday to 87.4% this morning.
Silver: Silver prices are higher with December contracts up nearly 2%, as spot silver broke a 14-year high. Silver has found support from expectations that the Fed will cut interests rates in October and December while the Silver Institute projected the silver market will end the year at a deficit for a fifth consecutive time as global output is expected to total 844 million ounces in 2025, 100 million ounces short of demand. China’s solar installation grew slightly in August as pricing reforms drove companies to front-load installations earlier in June, but solar cell exports from the country were last seen surging by 40%.
Platinum: Platinum futures gained with US December contracts adding over 0.8% to $1598.
Base Metals
Copper: Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange was up 0.4% at $10,307 per ton in official open outcry trading while contracts in the US shed over 0.2%. Markets in top metals consumer China are closed from October 1 to 8 for the National Day holiday. The lack of liquidity from the Chinese market could lead to increased volatility over the coming days. The union for supervisors at Antofagasta’s Los Pelambres copper mine in Chile has rejected a new contract offer, paving the way for a potential strike, a union leader said on Tuesday. This adds to existing supply worries after last week’s force majeure by Freeport-McMoRan at its Grasberg mine in Indonesia.
Copper output in Chile, the world’s largest producer of the metal, fell 9.9% year-on-year in August to 423,643 metric tons, statistics agency INE said on Tuesday. Output at the world’s top copper producer, Codelco, took a hit after a July 31 accident at its flagship El Teniente mine that killed six people and forced a halt to mining and smelting. The state-run company reported losses of 33,000 metric tons of copper linked to the incident, and cut its 2025 guidance.
China’s factory activity showed signs of improvement in September, according to both official and private surveys. The official manufacturing purchasing managers index rose to 49.8 in September from 49.4 in August, the National Bureau of Statistics said Tuesday. The subindex for factory production rose to 51.9 from 50.8 in August. New orders rose to 49.7 from 49.5, while new export orders improved to 47.8 from 47.2. Meanwhile, RatingDog’s China General Manufacturing PMI rose to 51.2 in September 2025, surpassing both August’s 50.5 and the market consensus of 50.3. This marked the highest reading since March, matching the level seen that month. Output grew at the fastest pace in three months, while new export orders rose for the first time in six months.
Zinc: Zinc gained 0.2% to $2,966.50. LME registered zinc stocks have fallen from 230,000 tons to 40,850 tons since the beginning of the year. Available tonnage, excluding metal awaiting physical load-out, stands at just 30,625 tons.
Aluminum: Aluminum rose 0.3% to $2,687.50.
Tin: Tin gained 1.5% to $35,950, after earlier hitting $36,090, its highest since April 4.
Lead: Lead was up 0.3% to $1,994.50. Recent data showed that lead inventories in warehouses monitored by the Shanghai Futures Exchange fell 15% from Friday to their lowest level since February.
Nickel: Nickel slipped 0.5% to $15,160.
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