Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. US stocks are lower. Tech stocks lower. Investors buying real estate, utilizes and consumer staples which could benefit most if Fed lower rates. McDonalds will lower combo meal prices 15 pct to help sales. USD is higher. Crude is higher. Choppy trade waiting for Fed Chairman comments at Jackson Hole Kansas City Fed annual meeting. US Central Bank needs to decide between fighting inflation or sagging employment. World weather US Midwest forecast suggest August could be drier than normal for E IA,IL,IN,OH and KY. September could be drier for ND,SD,IA,MN and N IL.
SOYBEANS
SX is near 10.34. Pro Farmer tour est IN pod count at 1,376 vs 1,409 ly and NE at 1,348 vs 1,172 ly and highest since 2003. Dalian soybean, soymeal, soyoil and palmoil were lower. Sep board crush up and near 191. Higher soymeal offset lower soyoil. American soybean association sent Trump a letter urging and trade deal with China. Brazil may slow down crush due to poor margins. This could be helping soymeal prices back close to near $300.
CORN
CZ is near 4.02. Pro Farmer crop tour est IN corn yield near 193.8 vs 187.5 ly and highest since tour started in 2003. and NE 179.5 vs 173.2 ly and highest since 2021. Dalian corn futures continue lower and new contract low. There has been some short covering adding some weather premium due to dry Midwest August weather. Cooler temps and concern about export demand could limit the upside. USDA announced 229 mt US corn to Mexico.
WHEAT
WZ is near 5.22. KWZ is near 5.20. Chicago and KC charts are negative and below kwy support. MWZ is near 5.86. Some feel USDA is 8-10 mmt too high in World trade. This could increase exporters end stocks. Argentina and Australia futures are at new lows. EU July-August wheat exports were near 3.5-4.0 mmt is down 14 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20. Russia July-August wheat exports were 5.8 mmt or down 38 pct vs ly and could suggest lower annual exports. New Russia shipping rules to approve vessels before entering ports has slowed loading and grain at export terminals are overflowing. Terminals have stopped accepting grain. There are 120 vessels awaiting approval.
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