Written Commentary
MORNING AG OUTLOOK
Grains are mixed. Trade is struggling with what to trade; improved SA weather? Drop is demand for US soybean exports? Higher demand for US corn or new inflow of buying due to inflation threat and Trumps desire to lower US interest rates? US Dollar is higher. US stocks are mixed. Crude is higher after Russia Caspian pipeline is attacked by drones. Upside is limited due to US and Russia Ukraine peace talks (without EU or Ukraine). Gold, silver and copper are higher on US policy uncertainty.
SOYBEANS
SK is near 10.57. US NOPA Jan soybean crush was 200.3 mil bu vs 185.7 last year. End of Jan soyoil stocks are est at 1,274 mil lbs vs 1,507 last year. An overall drier C/N Brazil weather should help soybean harvest. Brazil harvest is near 50 pct. S Brazil and Argentina rains is helping slow crop decline. Dalian soybean, soymeal and soyoil futures were higher. Malaysian palmoil was higher following soyoil. Some could see US soybean carryout 50 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports and crush. US exports are up 12 pct vs ly and USDA up 7.
CORN
CK is near 5.16. CK rallied over 5.00 on increased volume and open interest. Dalian corn futures were lower. Crude is higher after Russian pipeline was attacked by drones and despite US and Russia Ukraine peace talks. Better Brazil harvest and lower better Argentina rains could offer resistance to corn futures. Brazil corn plantings are near 36 pct up 17 pct vs last week but still below ly pace. Some could see US corn carryout 35-40 mil bu below USDA due to higher exports offsetting lower feed and residual. Season to date US exports are up 35 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 7
WHEAT
WK is near 6.17. KWK is near 6.38. MWK is near 6.57. World 2025 weather uncertainty is offering support. Ukraine and Russia weather is dry. Russia temps are cold this week with some snow cover. US plains are dry with colder temps. Temps moderate this weekend and are warmer next week. India is warm and dry. Most doubt US crop is a concern with snow cover except for SD. Season to date US exports are up 22 pct vs ly and USDA est of up 20. Russia on farmer wheat stocks are est at 13.7 mmt or down 31 pct from ly 20.2 mmt.
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