Written Commentary
TODAY—EXPORT SALES—USDA MONTHLY S/D REPORT
Overnight trade has SRW Wheat up roughly 10 cents, HRW up 10; HRS Wheat up 7, Corn is up 2 cents; Soybeans up 9; Soymeal up $2.00, and Soyoil up 40 points
Chinese Ag futures (May) settled up 26 yuan in soybeans, up 4 in Corn, up 31 in Soymeal, up 8 in Soyoil, and up 62 in Palm Oil.
Malaysian palm oil prices were up 47 ringgit at 3,405 (basis February) on lower production, stock projections.
South America Weather Forecast: In Argentina, concern of dryness in the south remains. Some shower and thunderstorm activity will occur Thursday in southern Argentina and this will be important since it will then likely be a while until more meaningful moisture occurs in this part of the nation. Another rain event will still be possible in southern Argentina Dec. 17 – 18; though, this may be erratic and is unlikely to be enough for notable soil moisture improvements. In Brazil, conditions will be favorable in much of the nation for crop development; though, there will be a few areas that will be left in need of greater rainfall by at least the end of the first week of the outlook.
The player sheet had funds net buyers of 13,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; bought 17,000 Corn; net bought 9,000 Soybeans; net bought 2,000 lots of Soymeal, and; bought 3,000 lots of Soyoil.
We estimate Managed Money net long 5,000 contracts of SRW Wheat; long 283,000 Corn; net long 196,000 Soybeans; net long 63,000 lots of Soymeal, and; long 113,000 Soyoil.
Preliminary Open Interest saw SRW Wheat futures up roughly 20 contracts; HRW Wheat up 660; Corn down 725; Soybeans down 7,100 contracts; Soymeal up 5,800 lots, and; Soyoil up 7,300.
Deliveries were 115 Soymeal; 432 Soyoil; ZERO Corn; ZERO HRW Wheat; 36 Oats; 7 SRW Wheat, and; ZERO HRS Wheat.
There were changes in registrations (SRW Wheat down 27; Oats up 6)—
Registrations total 148 contracts for SRW Wheat; 84 Oats; Corn 1; Soybeans 175; Soyoil 1,425 lots; Soymeal 193; Rice 313; HRW Wheat 113, and; HRS 1,083.
Tender Activity— S. Korea bought 60,000t optional-corn —
President-elect Joe Biden plans to nominate former Iowa Governor Tom Vilsack for U.S. agriculture secretary, according to two sources familiar with the decision, a choice that will reassure farmers but disappoint climate and nutrition activists.
Vilsack, who led the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) under then-President Barack Obama, has a long relationship with Biden and served as a trusted adviser on rural issues during the Democratic former vice president’s campaign.
U.S. farmers will likely see a familiar face at the helm of the Department of Agriculture come January, but the lofty government assistance programs they have gotten used to could be a thing of the past under a Joe Biden-led administration.
China says 2020 corn output barely changed from last year – Reuters
- Corn output 260.67 mln T vs 260.77 mln – statistics bureau
- Analysts had been expecting big drop, some question data
- China’s wheat, rice and soybean production all rise
- China produced 260.67 million tonnes of corn in 2020, the National Bureau of Statistics said on Thursday, barely changed from last year despite weather damage before the harvest
BRAZIL 2020/2021 SOYBEAN CROP SEEN AT 131.6 MILLION TNS VERSUS 132.2 MILLION TNS IN PREVIOUS FORECAST – AGRURAL
Argentine grains inspectors and oilseed workers started a new wage strike on Wednesday, organizers said in a joint statement, as stalling contract negotiations threatened to interrupt exports from one of the world’s main bread baskets.
The Russian Agriculture Minister Dmitry Patrushev announced Wednesday that the country’s food market continues to remain stable, with grain harvest expected to surpass 131 million tons in 2020.
Farm office FranceAgriMer on Thursday increased its forecast of French soft wheat exports outside the European Union in the current 2020/21 season to 6.95 million tonnes from 6.85 million tonnes projected last month. That would be 48% below a record 13.46 million tonnes estimated for the 2019/20 season, FranceAgriMer’s supply and demand data showed. Forecast soft wheat stocks at the end of 2020/21 were unchanged at 2.5 million tonnes. Projected French maize stocks were cut to 1.9 million tonnes from 2.2 million last month, notably due to a reduced harvest estimate and an upward revision to expected exports within the EU, FranceAgriMer’s data showed.
Malaysia’s Dec 1-10 palm oil exports down 5.84% – Amspec Malaysia – Reuters
Futures and options trading involve significant risk of loss and may not be suitable for everyone. Therefore, carefully consider whether such trading is suitable for you in light of your financial condition. The information and comments contained herein is provided by ADMIS and in no way should be construed to be information provided by ADM. The author of this report did not have a financial interest in any of the contracts discussed in this report at the time the report was prepared. The information provided is designed to assist in your analysis and evaluation of the futures and options markets. However, any decisions you may make to buy, sell or hold a futures or options position on such research are entirely your own and not in any way deemed to be endorsed by or attributed to ADMIS. Copyright ADM Investor Services, Inc.
